Filip Tomic
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For the first time this season, we have a rematch of last year’s NBA finals as the Miami Heat head to Ball Arena for a date with the Denver Nuggets. Both teams are currently on long win streaks, so something will have to give here. I’ve prepared a Heat vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay to add some spice to the action. You can also check out our NBA picks for the rest of today’s big matchups.
Heat ML (+166)
Bam Adebayo to score 25+ points (+260)
Same Game Parlay odds: +523
Miami Heat ML over Denver Nuggets (+166)
There’s definitely something different about this Miami Heat team since the all-star break. They’ve won all 3 of their games, extending their current win streak to 5 in a row. They’ve covered the spread in 8 straight, including 6 in a row away from home. Tonight they lock horns with the team that beat them in the NBA Finals last season, and what better motivating factor than that for Jimmy Butler and his teammates? In their last 7 visits to Ball Arena, the Heat are just 1-6 SU, while in the last 11 meetings, the Nuggets have beaten them 10 times.
Denver is also on a solid run, winning all 3 games since the break, and Nikola Jokic is going wild, getting triple-doubles on a nightly basis. He destroyed the Heat in the finals last season, so I’m expecting head coach Erik Spoelstra to game plan around stopping the big guy here. If anyone can do it, it’s the Miami Heat. They have the 7th-best defensive rating in the NBA and unlike many other teams in the NBA, they flipped their playoff mode switch on as soon as the All-Star Weekend finished. Let’s go for the upset here.
Read our full Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets predictions
Bam Adebayo to score 25+ points (+260)
Bam Adebayo has been a reliable offensive option for the Heat in all 3 of those wins over New Orleans, Sacramento and Portland. He’s scored 20+ points in 5 of his last 7 games and I expect him to continue doing so over the remaining 24 regular-season games. The Heat did lose the NBA Finals to Denver last season, but it wasn’t due to Adebayo not showing up. He scored 20+ points in each of the 5 games in that serie and he matches up well against Nikola Jokic.
The Heat would be smart to feed Bam down low as much as possible. Wearing out Jokic would be a good strategy as that’s one of the only ways you can slow down his production. Denver has been nothing spectacular when it comes to defending the paint this season – their 50.1 points per game allowed from that area ranks only 14th in the NBA. That number is down to 52 per game in the 3 games since the break, ranking them 8th-worst in the league. Let’s hope Bam does some damage here and leads the Heat to an upset victory.
After a +1139 winner earlier this week, make sure you also check out our NBA mega parlay for tonight
