Filip Tomic
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We have a marquee matchup in Miami tonight as LeBron James makes his annual trip back to South Beach to face the team he left back in 2014. I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay, and the tip-off for tonight’s game is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET.
We will have predictions on the side and total for Monday’s 12-game slate, simply visit our NBA predictions page to see them. Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Heat -4.5 (+135)
LeBron James Over 1.5 Threes (-190)
Tyler Herro Over 22.5 Points (-170)
Same Game Parlay odds: +425
Miami Heat -4.5 over Los Angeles Lakers (+135)
After starting the season somewhat slowly, the Heat need a big win to get the ball rolling, and tonight’s game against the Lakers is a perfect opportunity to do so. Miami has owned this matchup in games played at the Kaseya Center with 13 victories in 18 games. There is good news on the injury front as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have both been upgraded to probable. That’s a massive boost for head coach Erik Spoelstra, who has struggled for options in his rotation following the departures of Max Struss and Gabe Vincent in the offseason. LA has similar issues with injuries to Taurean Prince, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes and Vincent. They’re winless in their last 7 road games and just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Jimmy Butler and the Heat are primed for a breakout game, and I think that happens tonight.
Don’t miss today’s NBA mega parlay (+800!)
LeBron James Over 1.5 Threes (-190)
LeBron always shows up when playing his former teams, and I expect that to be the case tonight as he continues to defy father time. James has made at least 2 threes in 4 games in a row and he’s shooting 36.1% from downtown for the year which would be his 2nd best season since joining the Lakers back in 2018. All those hours he put in during the summer shooting the three ball are paying off, and at this stage of his career, he’s relying a lot more on the three ball as opposed to driving to the basket. Getting to 2 threes shouldn’t be too much of an ask here, espically since opponents are shooting 38.8% from downtown versus the Heat this season which ranks them only 26th in the NBA. In home games, that number is at 41.7%, which is one of the reasons they are only 2-4 SU on the season.
Tyler Herro Over 22.5 Points (-170)
After getting criticized for the Heat doing well in their postseason run last year without him, Herro has taken it personally and has elevated his game to new heights to start the season. He leads the team in scoring averaging 25.8 points per game, ranking 14th in the entire NBA. His minutes have also gone up to a whopping 38.2 per game, and that amount of playing time guarantees him a lot of shot attempts on a nightly basis. In the last 5 meetings against the Lakers, his three-ball has been very consistent at 50% efficiency, and after seeing him shooting 10-for-17 in the 2 November games so far, I think his hot shooting continues here. The Lakers rank only 19th in opponent three-point shooting at 37.2%, while in their last 3 games that is up to 39.2%. Look for Herro to lead the charge offensively in this one for Miami.
