Filip Tomic
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The Boston Celtics have the opportunity to become the first Eastern Conference team to advance in this year’s postseason as they host the Miami Heat up 3-1 in their series. Miami did get a split in the first 2 games at TD Garden though, so it promises to be an intense match-up! Tipoff is at 7.30 pm ET on TNT, and I have prepared a Same Game Parlay that is available below.
For predictions on the side and total for Game 5 of the Mavericks vs Clippers series simply visit our NBA Picks page.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Heat +14 (-112)
Bam Adebayo to record 10+ rebounds (-220)
Nikola Jovic 2+ made threes (-130)
Jayson Tatum to record 10+ rebounds (-165)
Same Game Parlay odds: +571
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Miami Heat +14 over Boston Celtics (-112)
Despite trailing 3-1 in the series, I feel like there’s still a lot of life left in the Miami Heat. They have already won once on the road at TD Garden, and with their season on the line I don’t think they’ll go away quietly. Head coach Erik Spoelstra isn’t the type of coach who will allow a closeout game to get out of hand, so I’m expecting the Heat to fight hard. In 39 elimination games, Spoelstra has a record of 23 wins and 13 losses; the experience factor is on his side.
All the pressure is on Boston to finish this thing tonight and become the first Eastern Conference side to advance to the next round. The Celtics got an unexpected lift from Derrick White in Game 4 with 38 points. With Kristaps Porzingis unable to go the Heat have one less offensive threat to worry about on Wednesday. In their last 27 home games in the postseason, the Celtics have recorded 13 wins and 14 losses. I don’t think the Heat will win, but they will probably make the C’s lives difficult. I’m backing Miami against the massive spread.
Read our full Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics predictions
Bam Adebayo to record 10+ rebounds (-220)
I mentioned the absence of KP earlier, that’s one of the main reasons why I have Bam going for double-digit rebounds. In 42 minutes played in Game 4 he tallied 17 of them, largely due to Porzingis playing just 14 minutes. With him out the way the Celtics have only one other 7-footer in the rotation and that’s Luke Kornet, who hasn’t been a factor in the series so far. In their only win in the series so far the Heat out-rebound the Celtics and Bam finished with 10 boards. He’s cleared this number in 3 of the last 6 meetings while averaging 9.8 boards in the last 10 head-to-head. Let’s hope he can step up with his team’s postseason life at stake.
Make sure you also read our Mavericks vs Clippers Same Game Parlay for today’s other matchup
Nikola Jovic 2+ made threes (-130)
Jovic has been a model citizen so far in the 4 games played, averaging 2.3 made 3s per game on a impressive 47.4% efficiency. He really didn’t have it going in Game 4, playing just 16 minutes and going 1-for-4 from 3, but a bounce-back performance is to be expected on the road. He went 5-for-10 in the first 2 games of the series at TD Garden, continuing to produce in away games. During the regular season he posted much better numbers on the road than at home. His field-goal percentage is almost 9% higher on the road, while his 3-point efficiency increases from 35.1% to 43.8%. If the Heat are to catch fire from downtown like they did in Game 2, Jovic will surely play a huge role.
Jayson Tatum to record 10+ rebounds (-165)
Finally, to close out the SGP I have Tatum finishing with double-digit boards. He has done so 3 times in 4 games of this series, focusing a lot more on that aspect of his game as opposed to huge scoring performances. Compared to the last month of the regular season, he is averaging 5.4 more rebounds per game in this series. Some of the Porzingis boards should also go his way, and I really doubt the Celtics will risk relying on 37-year old Al Horford to clean up the glass in an elimination game. Tatum is at 9.6 rebounds per game in the last 10 against Miami; he has cleared this line 4 times in the last 5 meetings. That streak should continue tonight.
