Germantas Kneita
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The NBA play-in tournament is here and with it we get the first elimination game of the NBA season. Lose and you go home, it’s as simple as that. The regular-season games between the teams were tightly contested too, with the series being tied at 2-2. The hosts will take solace in the fact that they have won the previous 2 meetings while the Golden State Warriors will have hope knowing they took a win in Sacramento. Considering 3 of the 4 games were separated by just a single point, we could be in for an all-time classic tonight. Let’s dive into my Warriors vs Kings Same Game Parlay, while you can also check out our NBA picks for every play-in game and every NBA playoff matchup.
De’Aaron Fox 30+ points (-105)
Klay Thompson 4+ threes made (-145)
Domantas Sabonis 13+ rebounds (-170)
Over 223.5 (-130)
Same Game Parlay odds: +625
De’Aaron Fox 30+ points (-105)
In 3 games against the Warriors this season, De’Aaron Fox has been feasting. He has averaged 32.6 points per game while seeing jumps in both his field goal and three-point percentages. With the Kings’ season on the line tonight, he should see no shortage of minutes. He averaged over 38 minutes against them in the regular season and if he stays out of foul trouble, he should push past 40 minutes here. With a shortened guard rotation without Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk, Fox will assume the scoring burden in the backcourt. He is someone who historically thrives when he gets a chance to attack the rim. The Warriors are not flush with rim protectors, ranking 23rd in blocks per game this season. Look for Fox to step up to the plate tonight and put together a huge performance for the hosts.
Read our full Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings predictions
Klay Thompson 4+ threes made (-145)
A lot of people will look to Stephen Curry for three-pointers tonight but I think Klay Thompson could be the better value pick here. He really started to pick up form at the end of the season. The Warriors’ wing managed to hit at least 4 three-pointers in 3 of his last 4 games on the season. He was able to up his three-point percentage to 43.7% in the month of April too. In his last 2 games against the Kings, 16 of his 28 attempts have been three-pointers. Just like the Warriors, the hosts really lack a rim protector. With his handles, look for Curry to play a larger role in attacking the inside with Thompson playing a floor spacing role. It should lead to double-digit attempts from beyond the arc for the veteran. On recent form, that should be enough for the over on this line to hit.
Now read our Lakers vs Pelicans Same Game Parlay for tonight’s other NBA play-in matchup
Domantas Sabonis 13+ rebounds (-170)
Domantas Sabonis ended up averaging 13.7 rebounds per game in the regular season, winning the rebounding title by 0.8 rebounds per game over the next-highest average that was put up by Rudy Gobert. Just like Fox, look for him to play a major role tonight which could see him push past the 40-minute mark if he stays out of foul trouble. He should get favorable matchups here too. Draymond Green is someone that he will be happy to let shoot from the perimeter, helping him keep a good rebounding position in the process. Trayce Jackson-Davis is also likely to see some time against him here. The rookie is someone who tends to go for blocks, leaving Sabonis opportunities to be effective on the offensive glass. Neither of the Warriors’ pair are likely to cause the Lithuanian many issues with their size. That should leave him in a prime position to dominate the glass here.
Over 223.5 (-130)
Of the 4 games the teams have played this season, only 1 did not surpass this total. The other 3 all reached at least a combined 236 points. Both ended the season in good offensive form, ranking 5th and 11th in offensive rating over their last 10 games. The Warriors were also 12th during that stretch in pace. Considering that they will have a deeper bench tonight, with Monk and Huerter out, I expect them to be pushing the tempo tonight. It helps that over the last 10 they are also 3rd in true shooting percentage. That efficiency should help ensure they do their part tonight. During the same stretch, the Kings are 5th in second-chance points per game. Look for them to exploit an undersized Warriors team to help them get theirs tonight too. Back the over.
