Filip Tomic
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Tuesday brings us the final day of group-stage action in the NBA In-Season Tournament and we have a massive showdown in the Western Conference between the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings. Golden State has taken both regular-season meetings so far, so is it time for the the Kings to bounce back? Tip-off is at 10:00 pm ET on TNT, and I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which you can read below.
We have NBA predictions for tonight’s 8-game slate, but now let’s get into my SGP bet for the Warriors vs Kings game.
Kings ML (-144)
Kevin Huerter over 2.5 made threes (+106)
De’Aaron Fox to score 25+ points (-250)
Stephen Curry to record 4+ assists (-195)
Same Game Parlay odds: +579
Kings ML (-144)
Heading into the season, I was pretty bullish on the Sacramento Kings compared to where they were sitting in the market. Through the first month of the campaign, I’ve been pleased with the effort from the Kings, even in the games when star point guard De’Aaron Fox was out with an injury. This team has flourished in the In-Season Tournament, having already knocked off the Spurs and Timberwolves on the road in addition to an impressive win over the Thunder.
Sacramento has 2 losses to the Warriors this season by a combined 9 points, and while the Kings have already advanced out of the group, I don’t believe they will rest guys in a pretty big playoff and early-season revenge spot at home. Golden State has dropped 7 of its last 10 and looks to be a shell of its former self at the moment. Let’s light the beam on Tuesday.
Read our Warriors vs Kings predictions
Kevin Huerter over 2.5 made threes (+106)
Kevin Huerter has really flourished over the last 10 games, upping his averages and efficiency in almost every statistical category. During that stretch he is at almost 16 points per game and shooting better than 49% from the field and 42% from downtown. For comparison, during the regular season he’s averaging 12.6 points per game on 43% from the field and 36% from three.
Keegan Murray’s absence has played a big role in all this as Huerter’s attempts have gone up which naturally increases his chances of big scoring games. He’s averaging 2.8 made threes per game in November, and had a stretch of 5 consecutive games with 3 or more threes made. With the Warriors’ recent struggles on defense, I think he’ll be able to clear this line tonight.
De’Aaron Fox to score 25+ points (-250)
What else can be said of the play of De’Aaron Fox? If he continues putting up numbers like he is, it won’t be long before he enters the MVP conversation. Right now, Fox is at 34.7 points per game when the Kings play at the Golden 1 Center, and earlier in the season he had a 39-point explosion against the Warriors. He has cleared this line fairly easily in 6 of 7 outings this month while averaging 29.3 points per game.
The biggest leap he has taken this year has been with his 3-point shooting. He’s at 3.2 threes per game for the season, which is double what he was making last year and also a career-high. Klay Thompson is no longer the defender he once was, Stephen Curry’s workload on offense is just too much for him to also concentrate on stopping Fox, and I think this is a perfect opportunity for a big scoring game for the Kings point guard.
Tuesday’s NBA mega parlay has +738 odds
Stephen Curry to record 4+ assists (-195)
Even though Steph Curry is a shoot-first point guard, I am still amazed we can get this solid of a price for him to dish out just 4 assists. He’s had 6 of them in consecutive games against the Spurs and Suns, while for the season he has cleared this line 9 times in 15 games. Against Sacramento he’s averaging 4.7 assists in the last 10 meetings, clearing this line 70% of the time.
The main reason he isn’t averaging more than 3.9 assists per game this season is the struggles of his teammates, particularly Thompson, who hasn’t been reliable shooting the ball. The Kings haven’t done a good job of stopping the ball movement of their opponents lately, and in their last 3 outings they’re allowing teams to average 28.7 assists per game, which ranks 4th-worst in the NBA during that stretch. Taking that into account, I think Curry can get 4 assists easily here.
