Filip Tomic
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After last night’s +954 winner on the Celtics vs Nets game, I’ve now landed three same-game parlay winners over the past seven days and I’m looking to add to that tonight. My focus is on the first game of the ESPN double-header as the New York Knicks host the Miami Heat at MSG. Tip-off is set for 7.30 pm ET, continue reading below to see my bet.
Don’t forget to check our predictions on the side and total for the rest of Friday’s nine-game slate, including the 2nd part of the ESPN double-header between the Clippers and Lakers.
But let’s dive into the Heat vs Knicks match-up first
Miami Heat 1 – 10 Win Margin (+165)
P.J. Tucker Over 1.5 Made Threes (+128)
Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 Points (-106)
Parlay odds: +996
Miami Heat 1 – 10 Win Margin (+165)
There is a lot of negativity surrounding the Knicks right now. They are also playing shorthanded with Nerlens Noel, RJ Barrett, and Derrick Rose all out until next month. That is why Miami is such an easy favorite in this spot. I like them a lot too, I think they would be a great value under any circumstances but especially with extra rest. In fact, they are 2-0 SUATS when playing with three or more days of rest. Look for them to extend that record on Friday night.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Miami Heat vs New York Knicks
P.J. Tucker Over 1.5 Made Threes (+128)
Tucker had one of his best games of the season last time he played the Knicks as he finished with 20 points in just 23 minutes played. He also shot the three ball at 66.7% in that game making four of six attempts and from the field he finished 7-for-9 on the night. Although he’s making only 0.9 threes per game in February, I’m expecting that to go up in tonight’s game against a Knicks side that ranks only 15th in opponent three-point percentage. New York allows teams to make 34.6% of their attempts per game and over their last three games that has gone up to 36.1% which ranks them just outside the bottom 10 of the NBA. The Knicks defense will most likely focus on Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro in this one, so that’s an opportunity for Tucker to go under the radar and drain a couple of corner threes.
Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 Points (-106)
Although he didn’t have the best of scoring games the last time he played against New York, I’m expecting Adebayo to do some damage tonight. In his last six against the Knicks he’s scored 20 or more in three games and he’s averaging 17.3 per game. If we only look at his games at Madison Square Garden, he has scored 20 or more points in his last two visits, so I’m feeling very optimistic tonight. The Knicks rank third when it comes to opponent points in paint this season, but over the past three games they are allowing almost 10 points per game more than their season average. Injuries have taken a toll on them and I’m expecting Miami to punish them inside in tonight’s game, so look for Bam to dominate down low in this one.
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