Filip Tomic
Show Bio
It was an eventful trade deadline day on Thursday, but normal life resumes in the NBA tonight with 14 teams in action! My focus is on the NBA TV clash between the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics, starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Continue reading below for my same-game parlay, once you’re done with that check our predictions on the side and total for the rest of Friday’s games.
Let’s dive into the Nuggets vs Celtics clash:
Boston Celtics 1-10 win margin (+165)
Marcus Smart over 1.5 made threes (-140)
Nikola Jokic to score 30+ points (+250)
Parlay odds: +1331
Boston Celtics 1-10 win margin (+165)
The Celtics enter this one as 5-point favorites and for good reason. They’ve won 6 games in a row and are 7-2 in their last 9 played at TD Garden. In head-to-head meetings they’ve owned the Nuggets, winning 9 of the last 11 games between them. Denver has also played solid ball lately, winning 7 of the last 10 games, however on the road the Nuggets are just 13-16 ATS this season and against the Celtics they’ve covered the spread only once in 5 meetings. I have Boston winning this one, but it should be a close game as both teams have been elite on defense for good parts of the regular season. If we look at the last 8 meetings between the teams, 6 were decided by 10 or fewer points, which is good news ahead of tonight’s matchup.
Marcus Smart over 1.5 made threes (-140)
Marcus Smart has really improved as a 3-point shooter this season. Over his last 10 games he is averaging 36.4% makes from deep and he is averaging 2 per game in 4 games played in February. With the Celtics trading away point guard Dennis Schroder, Smart’s role on offense will increase, which should lead to more shot opportunities. In the game against the Nets the other day he finished 6-for-13 from beyond the arc. It was the 3rd time in his last 5 games he had scored 2 or more threes. Denver isn’t exactly known for its defense of the 3-point line, and the Nuggets’ opponents are averaging 35.8% makes over the past 3 games.
Nikola Jokic to score 30+ points (+250)
One of the reasons I like Nikola Jokic to go for 30 is Boston’s lack of interior presence. The 35-year old Al Horford isn’t really enough to keep teams from scoring against them in the paint. Over their last 3 games they’ve given up an average of 46 points in the paint, while in their last game against Brooklyn that number jumped up to 54, highlighting a big weakness in that aspect of their game. Jokic’s scoring is a bit down in February, hence the big odds for this bet. Still, he has scored 2 or more in 7 of his last 8 games and is reliable on a nightly basis, chasing triple-doubles. Denver will need more scoring from him in this game if they want to get a road win, and I’m confident he has what it takes to drop at least 30 on the Celtics. In his last 3 meetings against them he has had a 17-point, 10-rebound, 11-assist triple-double game, a 43-point explosion and a 30-point game.
Pickswise is the home of free NBA picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our NBA parlays and NBA prop bets tabs for more expert picks.
