Filip Tomic
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We have a battle between two Western Conference heavyweights tonight in Phoenix as the Suns host the defending champion Denver Nuggets. You can watch this game as part of ESPN’s doubleheader and tip-off is at 10:00 pm ET. I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which you can find below.
You can read our NBA predictions for all of Friday’s 6-game slate, but now let’s dive into my SGP:
Over 224 (-110)
Nikola Jokic to score 2+ threes (+180)
Kevin Durant over 5.5 assists (-111)
Same Game Parlay odds: +632
Over 224 (-110)
Despite these teams being ranked 26th and 27th in pace, I am still expecting a lot of points to be scored. These are the 7th and 13th highest-scoring offenses going by points per game, while in terms of efficiency they rank 7th and 8th in the NBA. On the health front the situation has also improved for both teams as Denver just got Jamal Murray back after a long layoff due to a hamstring strain, while the Suns reintroduced Kevin Durant to the lineup after an absence of a week.
Denver has gone over 130 points twice in its last 3 games, and the O/U stats are 3-1-1 in favor of the over in the last 5. Phoenix has been a reliable bet on the over for quite a while now – it has cashed in 12 of their last 16 games, and at home it has happened 7 times in 8 games. I expect more of the same tonight.
Nikola Jokic to score 2+ threes (+180)
Usually it’s pick your poison when doing Nikola Jokic prop bets and tonight’s game is no exception. The 2-time MVP should dominate Jusuf Nurkic, who just isn’t anywhere close to his level. Over the last 8 meetings, the Serbian has averaged 33.6 points per game with incredible efficiency both from the field (60.7%) and from 3-point land (45.5%).
Although he’s averaging only 1.3 threes in those 8 games, he has cleared this line 50% of the time, you won’t get +180 odds often for a bet that lands that much. In his last road game at Houston he went 3-for-8 from deep, and I’m counting on him to continue his solid run of form in tonight’s game.
Kevin Durant over 5.5 assists (-111)
In his first game since returning from injury, Kevin Durant dropped 30 points on the Toronto Raptors, however it took him 30 shots from the field to do so and it ultimately led his team to a 112-105 loss. He will have to play a lot smarter tonight in order to stand a chance against the defending champions. We all know his scoring capabilities, but in my opinion the Suns will be tougher to beat if KD starts dishing the ball more. He’s done just that in the last 4 meetings with the Nuggets, averaging 6.5 assists per game and clearing this line 3 times.
Phoenix won 2 of the 3 games in which he cleared this line, making it pretty clear what KD’s objective will be. Denver is allowing 26.3 assists per game over their last 3 outings, it might take a while for their defense to settle in with Murray coming back from injury. So instead of going for 30+ points I expect Durant to get his teammates involved.
