Filip Tomic
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It’s the game we’ve all been waiting for ever since the NBA schedule came out. The winners of the last 3 regular season MVP awards square off tonight in Philadelphia as Joel Embiid’s 76ers host Nikola Jokic’s Denver Nuggets. Of course I had to do a Nuggets vs 76ers Same Game Parlay for this matchup, with both big men featured. Don’t forget to also check out our NBA predictions for Tuesday’s big matchups, but for now, let’s get into my SGP.
Nuggets ML (+134)
Nikola Jokic to record 10+ rebounds (-290)
Joel Embiid to record 10+ rebounds (-260)
Joel Embiid over 1.5 made threes (+168)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1021
Denver Nuggets ML over Philadelphia 76ers (+134)
We don’t get to back the Nuggets at plus-money odds very often as they’ve been underdogs going into a game only 3 times this season. Although they are 1-2 SU in those games, I have a really good feeling about them coming into tonight’s clash with the 76ers. Jokic and company have won 11 of their last 14 games overall, plus they’re 6-1 SU in their last 7 away from home. Unlike the 76ers, who will be playing on the 2nd night of a back-to-back here, Denver had a day off following their 117-109 victory over Indiana.
The 2 teams have split the regular season meetings in each of the last 2 seasons, but the Nuggets do hold a 4-2 SU record if we expand to the last 6 meetings. They’ve also won twice in their last 3 visits to Philadelphia, both times by single digits. It will be an intense matchup and most likely a close outcome, but I feel like the way Denver has played on the road lately you have to like their chances of pulling off the upset here.
Read our full Denver Nuggets vs Philadelphia 76ers predictions
Nikola Jokic to record 10+ rebounds (-290)
January has been an unreal month even by Nikola Jokic’s standards. The Serbian big man is shooting an incredible 77% from the field and averaging 22.7 points on just 12 shot attempts per game. He’s cleared the 30-point mark only once in the month, so instead of backing him to carry the Nuggets offense I felt more comfortable going for his rebounds. He’s at 9.1 boards per game in the month so far, slightly down from what he was averaging in December but still a respectable number. He’s on a run of 3 straight games of double-digit boards, plus his average number of rebounds per game jumps to 11.9 a night in road games which is a clear indicator that he steps it up when his team needs the most. I’m sure he will want to show off against his nemesis big man Embiid here, so don’t be surprised if Jokic even goes for a triple-double here.
Joel Embiid to record 10+ rebounds (-260)
Embiid is on quite a roll right now, statistically speaking. He’s recorded at least 10 rebounds in 16 games in a row, dating back to mid-November. He went an entire month without a game with less than 10 rebounds, so it’s pretty clear that he has his mind set to score at least 30 points a game and to grab at least 10 rebounds. The big fella always gets extra fired up when it comes to playing Jokic — we all remember his performance from last year in January when he dropped 47 and had 18 rebounds in a Philly win. He’s played Jokic a total of 7 times in his career and finished with under 10 rebounds just twice.
Joel Embiid over 1.5 made threes (+168)
Embiid has also been prolific from three-point land during this historic run. He finished December averaging 1.2 makes per game from downtown, which is really solid for a player of his size. He did it on 42.3% efficiency which is also really good considering he’s a 7-footer. In 3 games played in January, he’s scored at least 1 three in each of them, while clearing this line once in the home win over Chicago. He’s at exactly 50% efficiency for the month, which is also encouraging.
One of the reasons I have him scoring 2 threes here is the fact that he’s done so 3 times in the last 4 meetings with Jokic, and in the last 2 meetings he’s a combined 7-for-10 from downtown. Another reason is the fact that he logged 31 minutes yesterday in the win over Houston, so if he is feeling a little tired he might settle for more shots from the perimeter instead of taking the ball to the hole. If this happens, I think there is a good chance of him connecting on at least 2 shots from distance.
