Filip Tomic
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The defending champions are looking to complete the regular season sweep of the Dallas Mavericks as the two teams lock horns for the 3rd and final time this season. Matchups between Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic are always fun to watch, you wouldn’t want to miss this one! Tip-off is at 3.30 pm ET on ABC, I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay which is available below.
For predictions on the side and total for the rest of Sunday’s games simply visit our NBA Picks page. But for now, let’s dive into my SGP bet for this matchup.
Michael Porter Jr. over 2.5 made threes (-150)
Nikola Jokic to record 10+ assists (+165)
Kyrie Irving to record 1+ steals (-210)
Same Game Parlay odds: +464
Michael Porter Jr. over 2.5 made threes (-150)
Calling a starter on an NBA team a secret weapon on offense doesn’t make much sense, but that’s exactly what Michael Porter Jr. has been this season. The 25-year old goes under the radar on most nights, simply because of the pick and roll threat posed by the duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. With the focus mainly on how to contain those two, Porter Jr. has put up really solid numbers, especially during the month of March. Right now he’s at 47.8% efficiency from downtown which is an increase of more than 10% compared to earlier months this season. The 3.1 made threes per game is only 2nd to November’s 3.3 he was making per game, but unlike then he’s averaging just 6.6 attempts per game compared to 8.3. Dallas isn’t exactly a top tier team when it comes to defending the perimeter, teams are averaging almost 37% of makes against them this season. With a bit of defense played on Luka, I think Porter Jr. will continue his solid shooting form here.
Nikola Jokic to record 10+ assists (+165)
What can we say about Nikola Jokic that hasn’t been said already? The 2-time MVP has found ways to control outcomes of games, regardless of how many points he’s putting up. He just had an easy 31 against the Spurs in Friday’s 117-106 win, I’m thinking he might focus a bit more on assisting in order to beat the Mavericks today. Dallas allows an average of 27.7 assists per game, that’s the 8th highest mark in the NBA this season. Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively are decent defenders, but they aren’t experienced enough to contain a player like Jokic. Over the last 4 meetings he’s averaging 8.5 assists per game, I’m confident he can push that up to double-digits here. During this current win streak that the Nuggets are on, they’re averaging 124 points per 100 possessions which ranks only 2nd to the Boston Celtics. A big reason for that has been the play of Jokic, so let’s hope he can keep his production consistent here.
Kyrie Irving to record 1+ steals (-210)
He might not be the greatest of defenders out there due to his smaller stature, but at least Kyrie Irving does a solid job at playing the passing lanes. Entering Sunday’s game he’s on a streak of at least 1 steal in 5 straight outings, in Friday’s loss at OKC he recorded 2 of them. In the first meeting of the season with Denver back in November he finished the game with 4 steals, extending his streak to 8 games in a row with at least one steal vs the Nuggets, dating all the way back to his days with the Boston Celtics. Ball movement is one of the staples of this Denver offense, only two teams average more assists per game this season than they do (29.3), so it’s natural to assume a couple of turnovers will happen along the way. I’m counting on Kyrie to be in the right spot and record at least one steal here.
