Filip Tomic
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For the 3rd time since 2020 it will be the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers squaring off in the 1st Round of the NBA playoffs. Tipoff for Game 1 is at 3:30 pm ET on ABC. Continue reading below to see my Same Game Parlay.
For predictions on the side and total for the rest of Sunday’s postseason games, simply visit our NBA Picks page.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Mavericks -2.5 (-112)
Kyrie Irving Over 24.5 points (-120)
Norman Powell Over 2.5 made threes (+124)
Same Game Parlay odds: +527
Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-112)
Without Kawhi Leonard at their disposal, the Clippers could be in a lot of trouble. Dallas enters the game having won and covered the spread in 16 of their last 20 outings, plus unlike in previous years their superstar Doncic has no lingering injuries coming into the postseason. The Clippers did win 2 of the 3 regular-season meetings, but those were all before 2024 started — so they don’t carry too much weight.
LA’s offensive rating goes down from 121.1 when Kawhi plays to 113.4 when he doesn’t, so the Mavs would be wise to get one of the first 2 games before an eventual comeback from him. The Clippers finished the regular season just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, plus at home in their last 11 they have covered the spread only twice. I’ll take the Mavs in the series opener.
Kyrie Irving Over 24.5 points (-120)
Kyrie Irving is arguably the best 2nd scoring option the Mavs have had in the era of Luka Doncic. In 58 games this season he averaged 25.6 points per game on almost 50% shooting which is really impressive for a player of his size. The 3-point shot has also been on point at 41.1% efficiency, Irving just has the whole package. He closed out the regular season averaging 28 points per over his last 8 games, upping his efficiency to over 53% from the field and over 43% from downtown. We all still remember that 48-point explosion against the Rockets 2 weeks ago; Irving attempted 17 free throws in that game. I more than like his chances of scoring 25 points, without having to worry about being guarded by Kawhi.
Norman Powell Over 2.5 made threes (+124)
It’s all about the role players for the Clippers in this series. The big-name stars will probably get their numbers, but it’s up to the likes of Terance Mann, Norman Powell and the rest of the reserves to make up for Kawhi’s absence. Powell is comfortable in his bench role, he has been a key contributor from 3-point land this season — averaging 41.5% makes. He had some really strong performance against Dallas, making 66.7% of his attempts from distance in 3 meetings. That type of shooting would be more than welcome in the series opener, as LA adjusts to life without Leonard. Dallas isn’t exactly the best of teams out there when it comes to defending the perimeter. Opponents were averaging 36.8% of made shots from distance against them, which ranks them only 18th best in the NBA. Let’s hope Powell can continue his solid shooting form.
