Filip Tomic
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There is no better way of getting into the weekend than with a ESPN NBA doubleheader. The Knicks and Bucks will start us off at 7:30 pm ET, followed by a clash between the top two seeds in the Western Conference the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets. I’ve prepared a Same Game Parlay, which you can find below.
We will have predictions for all of Friday’s 7-game slate in our NBA predictions, but now let’s dive into my SGP bet.
Dallas Mavericks +7 (-110)
Jamal Murray to score 25+ points (+210)
Luka Doncic to record 8+ assists (-280)
Same Game Parlay odds: +740
Dallas Mavericks +7 (-110)
We have a team that’s off to a 4-0 start to the season being 7-point underdogs here, and I’m not sure what the thinking behind that is by the oddsmakers, but we might as well take advantage of it while they’re offering. Dallas is 6-4 ATS/SU over the last 10 meetings, outscoring the Nuggets by almost 3 points per game during that stretch. In their last 7 visits to Ball Arena they’ve covered the spread 5 times, and with Denver going just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games overall, I really fancy the Mavs’ chances to keep this game close.
Luka Doncic is averaging almost a triple-double, and while Dallas could be without Kyrie Irving, given his shooting struggles in the first 2 games of the season they might not need him to get a result. I’ll back Dallas to cover the spread.
Jamal Murray to score 25+ points (+210)
Jamal Murray hasn’t had the best of times against the Mavs in his last 5 games, but most of those games were played pre-2022 so I wouldn’t put too much into those numbers. When you have a backcourt of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, opposing guards will have a field day scoring against you more often than not as neither of those guys is elite on the defensive end. Murray is averaging 18.8 points per game through 5 outings this season, and his efficiency has been quite good, especially from 3-point land where he’s shooting at 46.2% efficiency.
This is exactly where Dallas has struggled this season as the Mavs rank only 27th in opponent 3-point efficiency, allowing 38.5% of made shots from distance on a nightly basis. That number is up to 40.7% in their last 3 games, so expect Murray and Porter Jr. to let it fly.
You can also read our NBA mega parlay and Knicks vs Bucks SGP
Luka Doncic to record 8+ assists (-280)
The main driving force behind the Mavs’ early success this season has been Luka Doncic. Is this the year he finally blossoms into an MVP candidate? It sure feels like it following a 4-0 start to the season for Dallas, behind his averages of 33.8 points, 10.5 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game. He has failed to connect on 5 assists just once in those 4 games, dishing out double-figure dimes in the other 3 games. All those summer workouts are finally paying off as Luka looks a lot slimmer compared to last year and is finally in shape to start the season as opposed to working himself into shape as in previous years.
Taking down the Nuggets and Nikola Jokic would validate all the hard work the Mavs have done so far this season and Luka has had some pretty good stat lines in the last 5 meetings. He’s averaging a staggering 11 assists in those games, recording at least 8 in all 5 of them. There’s no doubt in my mind that streak should continue tonight as the Mavs put up decent resistance against the defending champions.
