Filip Tomic
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The Celtics head into South Beach with an opportunity to go up 3-1 in their series against the Miami Heat. Will the best team in the NBA deliver or can the Heat even things up? Tip-off is at 7:30 pm ET on TNT, and I’ve come up with my Celtics vs Heat Same Game Parlay picks. You can also find out our NBA picks for each of tonight’s matchups and every game throughout the NBA postseason.
Celtics -10.5 (-110)
Jaylen Brown over 21.5 points (-104)
Caleb Martin 2+ made threes (+120)
Same Game Parlay odds: +565
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Boston Celtics -10.5 over Miami Heat (-110)
Now that order has been restored in this series following the Game 3 win for Boston, I’m looking towards the Celtics making a statement in Game 4 and pushing the Heat towards the brink of elimination. The defense was once again on point following that unexpected loss in Game 2, as Miami shot just 9-for-28 from deep on Saturday and managed just 84 points in total.
Kristaps Porzingis bounced back with 18 points, while the dynamic duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown each had 22 on the night. With this series moving forward, the difference in class is becoming more apparent, especially with Miami missing their best player and defender in Jimmy Butler. The Game 2 victory was a fluke, only because Miami broke their all-time record in threes made. Boston is now 5-1 in the last 6 meetings and currently on a 5-game road-trip win streak in South Beach. I’m sticking with the Celtics for Game 4.
Jaylen Brown over 21.5 points (-104)
Brown has now cleared this line in back-to-back games and is yet to shoot under 50% in this series through 3 games played. His 6-foot-6 frame is a problem, and if things don’t go his way from the perimeter he has no issues taking the ball inside and attacking. That was clearly evident in Saturday’s game when he went 0-for-4 from deep and was still able to score 22 points. He averaged 21.7 points per game in 3 regular season meetings on 53% from the field and 43% from downtown. With him upping that average so far in the 3 postseason games, I think he’s in for another productive night here. The Heat defenders are clearly struggling with his physicality, so let’s hope he punishes them early and often.
Caleb Martin 2+ made threes (+120)
I was actually surprised with Martin taking just 4 shots in Game 3 and finishing with just 5 points, the lowest total of all five starters on Saturday night for Miami. We’ve seen this movie from him before though. One game he’ll have a hot shooting night, after which he will struggle a bit and then he’ll bounce right back the next game. Those types of inconsistencies have resulted in the oddsmakers giving us very solid odds for him to make 2 threes here. For a player averaging 50% of makes from distance in this series, we’re getting +120 for him just to reach his averages here.
We’ve seen Boston’s weaknesses in defending the three-ball over the first 3 games, as they’ve allowed Miami to make 40.7% of their attempts so far. I don’t think the Heat will knock down 20 threes like they did in Game 2, but they should put up a respectable number here. Hopefully Martin can contribute with a couple of makes himself.
