Filip Tomic
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The Eastern Conference Finals tip-off on Tuesday in Miami as the Heat host the Boston Celtics in a re-match of the 2020 series played in the bubble. Game 1 starts at 8.30 pm ET on ESPN and I’ve prepared a same game parlay which you can find below.
We also have predictions on the side and total for Game 1 of the Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors series, so don’t forget to check those out.
Let’s dive in!
Boston Celtics 1-10 win margin (+200)
P.J. Tucker over 1.5 made threes (+176)
Marcus Smart 2+ made threes (-330)
Parlay odds: +989
Boston Celtics 1-10 win margin (+200)
The Celtics won 2 of the 3 meetings during the regular season and I have them getting at least a split over the first 2 games in Miami. This team has already won 4 times on the road in these playoffs and in the lone meeting between these 2 teams played in Miami during the regular season they came out on top 95-78. This being the Conference Finals, I expect the defenses to be on top of their game so don’t be surprised if we see both teams finish under 100 points in Game 1.
Jayson Tatum has played exceptionally well over the last 4 games in the Bucks series, I’m expecting big things from him in this series. Boston also has the edge in three-point shooting, so even if this Miami defense forces them to shoot 50 threes like they did in Game 7 vs the Bucks they should be just fine. I’m taking the Celtics to set the tone early in this series and win the opener on Tuesday.
Be sure to check out our full Game 1 preview for Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat
P.J. Tucker over 1.5 made threes (+176)
Boston’s primary assignments on defense will be slowing down the likes of Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro, so role players like P.J. Tucker and Duncan Robinson could get some wide-open looks in this series. Tucker has been reliable in both series so far scoring at least 2 threes in 3 games against Philadelphia and in 2 of the 5 games against Atlanta. Compared to the regular season his percentage has gone up from 41.5% to 48.4%. That ranks him 2nd only to Maxi Kleber from players left in the postseason with at least 1 made three per game on average.
Toughness is one key component you have to have at this stage of the postseason and like Joel Embiid said at the end of the Sixers vs Heat series, any team would relish the opportunity to have a P.J. Tucker on their roster. Hopefully he can find his spots in Game 1 and nail a couple of shots for us
Marcus Smart 2+ made threes (-330)
Even though he won the ‘defensive player of the year’ award this season, Smart also plays a key role on offense for this Celtics team. He is currently 3rd in scoring on the team averaging 15 points per game this postseason and his contribution against the Bucks was immense. He averaged 2.2 threes made per game in the series on better than 40% from the field and has scored 2 or more threes in 3 of the last 4 games of the series. His shot was a bit off in Game 7 on Sunday, but he had some really big plays down the stretch slowing down Giannis and also ended that game with 10 assists.
I have him scoring at least 2 threes against Miami because he shot a pretty solid percentage in the 3 meetings against them during the regular season at 36.4% and scored 3 and 4 threes in 2 of the 3 games. Miami has done a decent job defending the three against Atlanta and Philadelphia, but Boston has a lot more shooters for them to worry about and I’m not sure they’ll be able to stop everyone.
Read our full series preview for Celtics vs Heat
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