Filip Tomic
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It is elimination time in the In-Season Tournament, with the first pair of quarterfinal matchups finally happening tonight. The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers get us going at 7.30 pm ET on TNT. I have prepared a Same Game Parlay, which you can find below.
We will also have picks on the side and total for every single upcoming In-Season Tournament game. Just head over to our NBA Predictions page to see them.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Boston Celtics ML (-200)
Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 rebounds (-108)
Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 assists (-140)
Buddy Hield 3+ 3-pointers made (-210)
Same Game Parlay odds: +528
Boston Celtics ML (-200)
Boston thoroughly dominated the first and only matchup so far this season between these 2 teams, winning 155-104 in early November. Tyrese Haliburton didn’t play in that game, so the point differential is a bit inflated. Still, I can’t see the Pacers troubling Boston too much — especially with Haliburton battling a lung infection prior to tipoff. It’s unknown if he will even suit up and it goes without saying that missing him would be a massive handicap for Indiana as he leads them both in scoring and assists per game this season. The C’s are also missing Kristaps Porzingis, but with their depth they will hardly feel his absence — which is visible by the 4-0 record in 4 games without him. However, Boston hasn’t covered that many times on the road lately — going just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games — so I am a weary of that. Let’s go with the Celtics on the money line.
Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 Rebounds (-108)
I’m not sure if we can compare tonight’s In-Season Tournament game to the playoffs, but technically speaking this is an elimination game so I think we can expect to see the best out of Jayson Tatum. His performances on the glass have been remarkable in these type of games. He has recorded double-digit boards in 4 of his last 5 when facing elimination, while averaging 10.8 boards per game. Indiana is only 12th in the NBA when it comes to opponent rebounds per game, so it is far from being an elite team on the glass. The Pacers also play a very fast pace at home, which should result in more shots and more rebounding opportunities. With Porzingis out, someone will need to step up on the boards and make up for his 6.7 rebounds per game. I think Tatum is our guy.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings Same Game Parlay has +678 odds
Jrue Holiday Over 4.5 Assists (-140)
Similarly to Tatum, Holiday is one of the more experienced players on this Celtics roster when it comes to facing elimination. He’s playing in 10 of them so far in his career, and he’s putting up really solid numbers of 15.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 7 assists per game, while playing nearly 40 minutes a game. With him accepting a lesser role on this Celtics roster, I don’t think he will rack up 40 minutes tonight, but he should definitely be able to reach 5 assists here. Only once in those 10 games he has failed to clear that line, way back in 2015 as a member of the New Orleans Pelicans in a game vs the Warriors. His recent form has also been solid, he just had 6 and 9 assists in his last 2 games, so expect Holiday to get his numbers tonight.
Buddy Hield 3+ 3-pointers made (-210)
Haliburton has been the talking point of the Pacers season so far, but let’s not diminish the impact Buddy Hield has provided off the bench. November was arguably one his most productive and efficient months in recent seasons; he averaged 3.1 made 3s per game on almost 40 percent shooting. During the month he had 5 games of double-digit attempts from downtown, so it’s quite clear that he plays a vital role in this high-octane Pacers offense. The Celtics are usually known for their solid defense on the perimeter, but they have slipped quite a lot in that area lately allowing teams to shoot almost 38% over their last 3 games. In win-or-go-home scenarios, coaches tend to play their more reliable players a lot more minutes than usual instead of experimenting with lesser experienced ones. In his last 5 games against Boston, Hield is averaging exactly 2 triples per game. He should be able to push that to 3 tonight.
