I went 2-1 with my trio of totals picks for Tuesday’s NBA Playoff games, so let’s try to match or exceed that with 3 more over/under plays for Wednesday’s slate.
Today, I like a pair of under plays and an over, so let’s get into explaining the reasoning behind those picks.
Under 227 points in Lakers vs Grizzlies (-110)
If Morant doesn’t play, that doesn’t mean the Grizzlies are dead in the water. They have proved they can win without him. Also, the Grizzlies were in a 1-point game with 3:11 left and didn’t score a single point the rest of the way. Los Angeles also got 29 points from Rui Hachimura and 23 points from Austin Reaves, who averaged under 24 points per game combined during the regular season. I don’t think that will happens again in Game 2. All of this adds up to an under 227 for me in Game 2.
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Over 218.5 points in Heat vs Bucks (-115)
The top-seeded Bucks are still considerable favorites in Game 2 over the Heat despite the fact that Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as doubtful for the game. Miami’s 130-point outburst is not likely to happen again. The Heat shot 59.5% from the field and 60% from three-point land. However, Giannis left the game in the first quarter and the Bucks still scored 117 points, which is their season average, against the second-best scoring defense in the league. That is something I think can happen again.
I expect Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer to have his team prepared much better defensively. Even with Miami coming back down to earth, if they break 100, this game should still get over the total. Tyler Herro being out does give me some cause for concern, but I don’t think that it’s enough to keep Miami under that number. The line has already been bet down, giving us an extra few points of value. Let’s go over.
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Under 222.5 in Timberwolves vs Nuggets (-110)
The Nuggets face the Timberwolves in Game 2 after a statement win in Game 1. Denver never had to break a sweat in the second half after extending its lead to 29 by the end of the third quarter. Minnesota was never able to get going offensively after the midway point of the second quarter and the Timberwolves were held to shooting just 37% from the field and 30% from three-point range. Both teams let up in the fourth quarter when the game was out of reach.
Oddsmakers lowered the total after Game 1 as expected and I expect Denver’s defense to continue to assert themselves. Similar to what we’ve seen in the first 2 games of the Boston-Atlanta series, I don’t see the Timberwolves being able to do their part offensively to help push this total over. The Denver defense should be the story in Game 2 in what I feel like will be another convincing win.
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