My Monday article could not have gone any better as I went 3-0 with my picks of UConn -7.5, over 131.5 in the Huskies vs Aztecs game and over 8 in the Blue Jays vs Royals MLB game, so let’s try to repeat that success with 3 picks for today’s NBA slate.
I have a side play for the big game of the night as the Celtics play the 76ers, plus a couple of over/under picks elsewhere on the Tuesday slate. Let’s get into the reasoning behind those picks.
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Boston Celtics +2.5 (-116) over Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers have been very good at home, going 25-14 against the spread but just 13-11 against the East. Philadelphia’s home defense has also been very good, allowing only 110.5 points per game. The Sixers seem to have a kryptonite against the Celtics in the way they have struggled against Boston’s three-point shooting. The Sixers have the 4th-best three-point field-goal percentage defense in the NBA this season, allowing teams to hit just 34.7% of their shots from deep on the season. However, the Celtics have shot 44% from beyond the arc in this year’s three games against Philly. Give me the Celtics plus the 2.5 points.
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Cavaliers vs Magic under 222.5 (-115)
The Cavaliers need a win or a Knicks loss to clinch home-court advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. Cleveland has won the teams’ first two meetings this season, But, strangely, the Cavs have struggled historically in Orlando, losing 5 straight in Florida. But I want to look at the total here as 7 of the last 10 between these teams have gone under and just 2 of the last 10 meetings would have gone over today’s total. Lastly, Orlando is on a run of 4 of its last 5 games staying under.
The Magic defense isn’t terrible and they’re facing a Cavaliers offense that’s 24th in the NBA in road scoring this season. Orlando will have to try to deny Donovan Mitchell from his fourth consecutive 40-point game. If they can do that, it will keep the Cavs team total right in the range needed for this to stay under. I would look at an option of a first-half under as well, because it’s likely if the first half doesn’t stay under, the game total won’t either. These are bottom-five scoring offenses and I trust the Cavs defense to do the rest.
Lakers vs Jazz over 236.5 (-110)
The Lakers are in full playoff mode, needing wins every night as they try to escape the play-in tournament. The Jazz are on playoff life support and need a win to avoid elimination from playoff contention. Both teams are banged up coming into this matchup. LeBron James is questionable and both Anthony Davis and D’Angelo Russell are probable. This line has been bought up to -9, giving me confidence that all will play. Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen are both questionable for Utah as well.
I like the over in this game. Assuming everyone is healthy is a big part of this, but the Jazz are 24th in the NBA in home team defense and the Lakers are ranked 26th on the road this season in points allowed. The Jazz are in the top 10 in scoring at home and the Lakers are in the top 5 in scoring on the road. Both previous meetings went over the total and Los Angeles is 5-1 to the over in its last 6, including 3 straight going over on the road. Combined, these teams are 9-4 to the over in the last 2 weeks.
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