I went 7-3 with my picks for Pickswise last week, so let’s try to build on that great start with 3 picks for Tuesday’s NBA play-in slate.
Today, I am looking at a spread pick for the Hawks vs Heat, Timberwolves vs Lakers and I also have an over/under pick I like in the Eastern Conference play-in game. Let’s get into the reasoning behind those picks.
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Atlanta Hawks +5 (-105) over Miami Heat
The Miami Heat host the Alanta Hawks in the 7/8 match-up in the Eastern Conference. Miami won the regular season match-up 3-1. The Heat’s offense is the lowest scoring offense in the league averaging just 109.5 points per game. However, they averaged 116.5 points per game in their four games against the Hawks this season. The Heat defense is the second-best scoring defense in the league, but they are facing an Atlanta offense that is top 3 in scoring and top 10 in shooting. Whosever style wins out will likely win the game.
The Heat are the worst spread team in the NBA this season covering just 38% of their games. They are also the second worst spread team at home this year covering just 35.9% of those games. This is too many points for me to lay with Miami. The Hawks would need to have an awful shooting night to not keep this close. Both teams are top three in free throw shooting so there’s no advantage on either side. While Miami will try and slow the pace and limit Trae Young, the Hawks will counter with Dejounte Murray, who they didn’t have last year in the playoff series. Ultimately, the Heat are not the team they were last year and Atlanta still has an offense that will put up points.
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Hawks vs Heat under 228 (-110)
If styles make fights, this is a correlating bet situation with the Heat and the Hawks. If Miami controls the pace and scoring, this will stay under. But if the Hawks are making shots, they will force Miami to do the same. The Heat can score on a bad Hawks defense as evidence by the 116.5 points per game they averaged in the regular season series between the two teams. The last 3 games in this series, all played after Christmas, landed on 234, 226 and 258.
In the history of the play-in, when the favorite is laying more than 4 points, the under has hit in all 5 games. While I believe the Hawks will keep this close enough to cover, Miami will slow the pace down knowing they can score enough against a Hawks defense that allows 118 points per game on the road this season. The total as gone under in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams and I think it stays under here again.
Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 (-110) vs Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers host the Timberwolves in the 7/8 match-up in the Western Conference. Los Angeles comes into the game winning and covering 9 of their last 11 games. Minnesota is a mess. Their players are fighting, and it doesn’t look like they are ready to be in this game. The Lakers offense has been surging, averaging 121.5 points per game over those last 11 games. The Timberwolves defense hasn’t been great this year either, allowing 116 points per game on the road.
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