I went 5-1 with my picks for Pickswise on Monday and Tuesday, so let’s try to build on that great start with 3 picks for Thursday’s NBA slate.
Today, I am looking at a spread pick for the Cavs vs Magic game and I also have a couple of over/under picks I like. Let’s get into the reasoning behind those picks.
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Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 (-105) over Orlando Magic
The Cavaliers and Magic played just 2 days ago in Orlando, with the Cavs winning 117-113, pushing a 4-point spread. This game has less on the line for Cleveland as the Cavaliers are now locked into the #4 seed in the East and they know their first-round opponent will be the Knicks. The Magic have been hot closing out the season. They are 9-0-1 ATS over their last 10 games and 5-0-1 ATS over their last 6 home games. The Cavs have covered in just 2 of their last 11 games in Orlando and are just 1-7 straight up in their last 8 trips there.
Cleveland star Donovan Mitchell has scored 40 or more points in 4 consecutive games and doing it a fifth time in a row would put him in some very elite company. The Cavs likely wouldn’t have won or pushed the spread last time without Mitchell’s scoring. However, Mitchell won’t play tonight along with some other Cavs starters. The young Orlando players should still give an all-out effort too. Even so, this is too many points for the Magic to be laying. I’ll take the points with the defense-oriented Cavs.
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Heat vs 76ers under 220.5 (-110)
The Miami Heat are one of the few NBA teams that still have something to play for as they face the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. They need to win their last 3 games and have the Brooklyn Nets lose their last 2 in order to earn the #6 seed, where they would meet the 76ers in the first round of the playoffs. The Sixers have only Joel Embiid’s MVP trophy to wrap up, but that may already be secured, so there’s no guarantee that Embiid will play enough to affect the game.
Both of these defenses are in the top 3 overall in scoring defense and both give up only 109 points per game on the road and at home respectively. The Heat are 15-23-1 to the over away from home on the season and the 76ers are just 20-20 to the over at home. Even if Embiid plays, I don’t think the pace or the scoring will be enough to clear this number. Both previous meetings this year stayed under and the total has gone under in 5 of Miami’s last 6 against Philadelphia.
Nuggets vs Suns under 223.5 (-110)
The Suns have won 6 straight games, going 5-1 against the spread over that span. They have covered in 3 of their last 4 home games and Kevin Durant has been playing significant minutes with this being his fifth game since coming back from injury. I can’t see him playing much tonight given the game doesn’t mean anything. All this adds up to very few points in my eyes. Denver has gone under in 7 straight games and the Suns are 1-3 to the over in their last 4 at home. Phoenix is also 16-21-2 to the over at home this season.
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