NBA Best Bets for Friday, April 14 from Pickswise expert handicapper Mark Zinno

I’m still not quite sure why Miami is this much of a favorite. In the first meeting in October, the Heat were a 7.5-point favorite as the defending top seed in the Eastern Conference from last year’s playoffs. In the other meetings, in December and March, the Heat were 1.5-point favorites at home and 2.5-point favorites in Chicago. The Heat are the worst spread team in the NBA and there’s no reason to trust their offense to lay this many points. Bulls plus the points.

It’s another insanely low total for the Bulls after having their lowest total of the season against Toronto at 212. Miami is the second-best scoring defense in the league and the Heat are excellent at slowing the pace. They were forced to play faster against the Hawks because they got down by a lot early in the game. The Bulls don’t score at that rate, so things should be slower for the Heat.

All three of the teams’ regular-season games would have gone over this total as they averaged 218.5 points. I’m not sure how Miami wins a game that stays under. The Heat are going to have to score. Unless they can limit a Bulls team that averages the third-best shooting percentage in the NBA to an off-night, the Heat will have to find a way to fill the basket. The way this game stays under is a one-sided blowout with one of the teams barely breaking 90. I’ll still play the over as neither team will let up with a loss ending their season.

Check out today’s NBA first basket best bets — we have cashed our last 3 at +450, +370 and +1100!

The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Oklahoma City Thunder for the chance to be the #8 seed in the Western Conference. To end up here, the T-Wolves lost a game to the Lakers on the road that they probably shouldn’t have lost. The Thunder outlasted the Pelicans, paced by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his 32 points. While Minnesota is the favorite, the betting public has been backing the Thunder to this point, mostly because they have the best player on the floor.

These teams played all four of their meetings before Christmas, so they are pretty different now. Minnesota is not as adept as OKC defensively, so the Thunder should have even more success offensively. The Thunder are not as adept defensively as the Lakers. In fact, they aren’t close. So Minnesota should have a better output offensively, particularly from Anthony Edwards. Both teams have the offensive weapons to fill up the bucket. Let’s go over 228.