Sam Avellone
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Rock Chalk Jayhawk! Kansas is back in the national title game for the 10th time in school history and the first time since 2012.
The Jayhawks have been impressive on both ends of the floor in their run to the national title game, especially on defense. Kansas was extremely active in its half-court defense against Villanova, often trapping the Wildcat guards and forcing turnovers early in the game to get out to a double-digit lead. The offensive output of Ochai Agbaji and David McCormack propelled Kansas to a 38-19 lead late in the first half, which proved to be a uncomfortable margin for the slow-paced Wildcats without Justin Moore.
What does Kansas need to do to win the NCAA Tournament Final?
In Kansas’ Final Four team preview, I mentioned the Jayhawks would be in a great position to win the national championship if it continued playing excellent defense to match its high-powered offense. That still holds true. Kansas’ postseason run started when it held West Virginia, TCU, and Texas Tech to 65 or fewer points to claim the Big 12 Title, and the Jayhawks have shown no signs of slowing down during the NCAA Tournament.
After the convincing win against Villanova in the Final Four, the Jayhawks have now held tournament opponents to 60.8 points per game on 36.2% shooting from the field with Creighton being the only team to score more than 70 points against them since March 1. Kansas’ impressive defensive play in recent weeks has led to a rise in their defensive efficiency rating across multiple reliable college basketball statisticians, as KenPom ranks Kansas 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Haslametrics ranks the Jayhawks 11th and BartTorvik 14th.
The Jayhawks have been quite good offensively all season. They are the 6th-most efficient offense per KenPom’s metrics and have scored an average of 77 points per game in the NCAA Tournament. They should have a desire to push the pace of this game as much as possible, as North Carolina has struggled to defend in transition this season. The Jayhawks score more than 1.1 points per possession in their transition offense, which ranks in the 87th percentile per Synergy, so the Tar Heels will likely be tested by coach Bill Self in that aspect.
As far as individual matchups are concerned, I expect coach Hubert Davis to use Leaky Black as the primary defender for Agbaji and for Armando Bacot’s presence to limit McCormack in the post, despite an ankle injury sustained against Duke. This would leave Christian Braun, Jalen Wilson, and Remy Martin to carry the load offensively, which they are more than capable of doing as the trio averages a combined 29.9 points per game. This is an extremely talented Kansas team that is now playing at its best with an elite defense to match its elite offense. So long as the Jayhawks continue playing at the same level as they have been since early March, they should be the ones to cut down the nets tonight.
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