Sam Avellone
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The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Kansas Jayhawks will meet on Monday night in the NCAA national championship game. The Jayhawks are currently listed as a 4-point favorite while the total is around 152. With the expectation of a high number of points, there should be some value to be had in the player prop markets. We have thoughts on the side and total as well, which you can read in our full game preview.
Let’s take a look at a couple player props that stand out more than the others for Monday’s National Championship game, with odds courtesy of PointsBet.
Christian Braun over 12.5 points (-110)
Christian Braun has not scored at his normal rate over the last 3 games, but he averages 14.2 points per game and is still highly efficient when he gets the opportunity to score. In this matchup with North Carolina, I expect Leaky Black (North Carolina’s best defender) to guard Ochai Agbaji — leaving Braun in an exploitable matchup with Caleb Love or Brady Manek at various points of the game. I also expect David McCormack to have fewer shot attempts than he did in the Final Four, as North Carolina has Armando Bacot to defend him in the post. This could free up some shots for Braun, who attempted just 8 field goals in the game against Villanova. Braun can score from anywhere on the floor, as he shoots 54.9% from 2-point range, 38.9% from 3-point range, and 73.3% from the free-throw line. He will likely play 35 minutes or more in what should be a high-scoring contest, so take the over on his point total prop.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for North Carolina Tar Heels vs Kansas Jayhawks
Brady Manek over 16.5 points (-125)
Brady Manek ranks in the 94th percentile per Synergy’s offensive metrics and takes the 2nd-highest percentage of shots for the Tar Heels. He will likely draw Jalen Wilson defensively, which seems to be a good matchup for Manek on paper. Wilson is a great glue guy for the Jayhawks, as he rebounds well and takes care of the ball. However, he leaves a little bit to be desired on the defensive end as he ranks in just the 51st percentile per Synergy. Manek should be able to take advantage of this, as he averages 15.2 points per game while shooting 49.3% from the field and makes 40.1% of his 3-point attempts. He has played at least 38 minutes in North Carolina’s last 3 games and commits just 2.1 fouls per 40 minutes, so you can count on him being on the floor for a vast majority of this game. He has scored at least 17 points in 6 of North Carolina’s last 9 games and will likely have ample opportunity to do it again tonight.
Find out what North Carolina needs to do to win tonight’s National Championship game
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