Matt Selz
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The Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway is shaping up to be quite the interesting race. Not only is the race at the Monster Mile — the well-earned nickname for the track — but there’s also weather concerns for the weekend. There is a chance that practice and qualifying on Saturday will be cancelled due to rain which will set the starting grid via formula. All in all this could see more coming and going than Talladega saw last weekend.
Dover Motor Speedway betting strategy
Known as the Monster Mile, it’s a devilish one-mile, concrete track with high-banking. This tack has been known to be tough on the drivers, tires, and cars alike. Don’t be surprised if we see the most mechanical issues or tire issues here compared to anywhere else. The 400 laps, or 400 miles, in the race can be clicked off relatively quickly if the race stays green because the of the high speeds they carry around the track. While the track is a one-mile oval and could count as a short track in terms of distance, it drives like an intermediate and they will have the intermediate aero package on the cars this week. That’s good news for passing as that package has shown more passing than the short track package. However, that does mean that they won’t have the wet tires available this weekend despite having rain in the forecast much of the weekend.
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Wurth 400 trends and history
The results and histories here show that the track races like a perfect mix of a short and intermediate track. In the last 12 races here — dating back to 2016 — we’ve seen eight of the 12 winners starting inside the top-10 starting spots. Five of those eight top-10 starters have started P2 with the pole-sitter not having won here since Fall of 2010. The remaining four winners started P13-P17 with the P17 winner coming in last Spring’s race. The top-10 finishers here have come from everywhere in the field with regularity so it’s possible to move up here, or just wait for crashes to happen. It is possible to see a “big one” here in terms of a wreck as the steep banking can sweep cars back down into the middle of the track and the flow of the pack behind them.
Outright Winner predictions for Wurth 400
Kyle Larson (+500 at DraftKings)
Larson has been rolling of late. He’s been one of the fastest cars on track regardless of where they’ve raced and now they come to a track he’s been hot at in the last couple of years as well. In the last four races at Dover, Larson has finished no worse than P6 with a win, runner-up, and P3. He will need qualifying to have a better starting spot after a bad wreck at Talladega last week. That being said though, we’ve seen HMS strategize their way into contention more often than not.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1000 at Caesars Sportsbook)
It has been a great track for Truex. He has a win and five top-fives in the last eight races here and that doesn’t include him running P4 late last Fall before wrecking back to P12. The speed has been a bit concerning this year, though faster on shorter tracks which Dover sort of counts as. We’re banking on his track history and his ability to move up here well previously as well despite disappointing results elsewhere.
Kevin Harvick (+1100 at DraftKings)
Has anyone been better than Harvick at Dover of late? Nope. He’s posted two wins and five top-fives with eight finishes of P9 or better. That is the kind of consistency we love to see at a track like the Monster Mile. Couple that with the speed he’s had on shorter tracks this year, like Richmond and Phoenix.
Tyler Reddick (+2200 at BetMGM)
Reddick hasn’t had the best runs here in the past however, he’s now with Toyota. That could make a difference given the success of Toyota’s here in the past several trips to Delaware. He could also be a beneficiary of the weather as he would start P4 if qualifying is rained out and getting 22-1 odds and a driver in the top-five here is a nice get. You’ll want to bet that line before Saturday though in case qualifying does happen and if he starts naturally inside the top-10 the odds will get shorter.
Ryan Blaney (+2800 at BetMGM)
How many times can he come that close to winning? That’s the thing with Blaney now isn’t it? He’s the guy that’s always close to winning but not actually winning. If qualifying is rained out, he’ll start P2 and as we stated above, that’s been a good starting spot to win for a while now here. However, like with Reddick, if they have qualifying and he’s starting in the top-five, the odds will get shorter.
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Best Prop Bets for Dover Motor Speedway
Martin Truex Jr. top-5 finish (+190 at BetRivers)
It seems crazy that we’re getting plus money on a guy like Truex here. In the last eight races at Dover, Truex has finished P4 or better five times and last Fall he was P4 when he wrecked racing for third late in the race. So basically 6-of-8 races he’s nailed down a top-five. Granted, we need qualifying to happen for us to have a better shot at this but twice in the last three races he’s started P18 and P19 and finished top-four.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. top-10 finish (+220 at Caesars Sportsbook)
This bet comes down to weather. If the rain comes and washes out qualifying he’ll start inside the top-10. He’s also been sneaky fast on short tracks this year with good showings at Martinsville, and Bristol Dirt. Stenhouse has been in the news for the swap in pit crew but if he’s starting close to the front they’ll only need to hold him spots for this bet to pay.
Josh Berry top-10 finish (+165 at BetRivers)
He’s been spectacular the more he’s run in the Cup series. Now he gets a second chance in an HMS car with Alex Bowman being injured. Bowman had been spectacular at Dover in the last eight races with five top-fives so clearly the team knows how to set the car up. Berry is a short track racer by trade and Dover still counts as a short track. We’ve already seen him finish top-10 so why not once more?
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