Matt Selz
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NASCAR is headed to wine country of Sonoma, California for a road race at the famed Sonoma Raceway. With NASCAR making waves at the famed 24 hours of Le Mans this past week, it’s time to see what the standard Cup cars can do while making laps at one of the best road layouts in the world.
How will the changes to stages play out this weekend? How will Toyotas run this weekend after a terrible race last year? Do I see one of the favorites win on Sunday? Let’s dig into the strategy, Sonoma track layout and my favorite bets for the Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma!
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Sonoma Raceway track layout
The second road course race of the year for the NASCAR Cup Series is upon us. It will take place over the 12-turn, 1.99-mile layout we’re accustomed to at Sonoma. It’s perhaps the most technical road course lap from start to finish on the schedule in NASCAR and that includes the elevation change of 160 feet per lap. There are passing chances on this track in turns 2, 4a and 7 as well as Turn 10 and specifically the Turn 11 hairpin. As with most road course races, don’t expect to see a lot of cautions thrown because single-car spins — of which there will be many — don’t draw the flags like on an oval layout.
Toyota Save Mart 350 betting strategy
In the past, road course have been tricky for strategies because of the stage breaks and how teams approached them. However, this year NASCAR made a change that road courses won’t actually have stage break cautions; instead, they will just award the points after the stage-ending lap. This will mean some different strategies being used by teams. For example, the last 2 years at Sonoma we saw Kyle Larson win — and dominate — the first stage each race and then pit for tires and fuel. The first year he got back to the lead and won; last year he was mired back in the pack and couldn’t pass. If teams have a more natural race flow this year, it should make it easier for the best cars to make it to the front and stay there.
So how does this change the betting strategies this weekend? I’m going to be betting on drivers and teams that have shown the best Green Flag Speed and Late-Run Speed rather than the best average finishes. Why? Well, if the cars don’t have to stop and there aren’t a ton — or any — cautions, then the cars that have been consistently fast at these tracks should be running up front over the long run. Before betting any Toyotas, I need to see what they look like on the track given just how badly they ran at road courses last year.
Winner predictions for Sonoma NASCAR Cup race
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated
Tyler Reddick +500 (BetMGM)
How can I not include the guy who has won 3 of the last 5 road races, including at COTA earlier this year? When looking at the last 10 road races for Green Flag Speed and Late-Run Speed, he ranks P3 and P1, respectively. Granted he is in a Toyota this year and they didn’t do well here, but Reddick appears to be fast enough to overcome that stigma.
Kyle Larson +500 (BetMGM)
When it hasn’t been Reddick winning the races, it’s been Kyle Larson. He also won here 2 years ago and had the fastest car in this race a year ago before being trapped mid-pack following the Stage 1 caution. Without the stage breaks now, he should be able to implement any strategy he wants for tires and/or fuel.
Kyle Busch +1100 (BetRivers)
The new driver of the 8 car won a week ago at Gateway and he’s been known to go on streaks before. That’s not the main reason he’s on the list, though; he is good at road courses. In his career he has multiple wins at this discipline and in the last 2 road races the Cup Series has run, Busch has finished P3 and P2, respectively. Let’s also not forget that a bunch of the runs that rank Reddick highly in the speed ratings came in this car Busch is now in.
Daniel Suarez +1800 (BetRivers)
Why are we getting this long of odds on the winner of this race a year ago? It wasn’t really a fluke win, either. Suarez pulled away in Stage 3. Let’s couple that with a great run in the COTA race earlier this year before the multi-caution ending wrecked his day. The Trackhouse cars haven’t been consistently quick of late, but they still have been at road courses. It’s worth taking a bit of a shot that Suarez can replicate the speed here in back-to-back years.
Chris Buescher +2000
Has anybody realized that Buescher has as many quality finishes at road courses as he does? Buescher’s average finish over the last 10 road course races is 9.4, or fourth best in the field behind only Chase Elliott, Austin Cindric and Reddick. That average finish includes a runner-up to Suarez last year. He is one of the most underrated drivers in the field at road courses and these odds show that being that far behind all of the drivers he compares to in average finish and running position.
Michael McDowell +4500
McDowell is the longshot of the week but he’s not your prototypical longshot. He is a very accomplished road course driver and was previously — prior to joining NASCAR — a track instructor at Sonoma. McDowell finished P3 here last year and ran top 8 in 4 straight races. When looking at Green Flag Speed and Late-Run Speed he ranks P10 and P6, respectively. That all amounts to a guy having better odds to win than these implied odds indicate.
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Best Prop Bets for Toyota Save Mart 350
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated
Michael McDowell Top-10 Finish (+130)
Starting the props where I left off with the winners, I arrive at Michael McDowell. While the odds are far shorter for the top 10, as they should be, they are still in our favor. He has managed 4 top 10s in 7 NextGen road races as has had average running position of 10th or better in more than that. Getting plus money on a guy who has pulled this off better than 50 percent of the time is a bonus.
Daniel Suarez Top-5 Finish (+260)
Here comes another hedge. Again, Suarez has been 1 of the 5 best cars on the track in the last handful of road courses and why should that stop now? He has pulled off a top-5 finish in half of the last 6 road races and these odds put his chances of doing that at 27.7% — which gives us value.
Austin Cindric Top-10 Finish (-120)
Every so often I like the negative odd bets and this is one of those. Cindric has a phenomenal road course pedigree and that’s borne out as true in the Cup Series with 6 top-10 finishes in his 8 road courses. That’s a 75% hit rate. In case you’re wondering, -120 odds have implied odds of 54.5%. So, again, there’s value here — and I like taking the value in a sport like NASCAR.
Zane Smith Top-10 Finish (+900)
It’s always fun to have longshot props, amirite? Smith doesn’t have a ton of Cup experience…ahem, 1 race… but what he does have is good equipment and good road racing pedigree. He has won twice and finished P2 twice in the Truck Series at road courses and this 38 car has been very racy all year. Todd Gilliland pulled off a top 10 in it at COTA and Smith himself had a great run in it at Charlotte in the longest race of the year. So let’s take a shot on this prop with some solid logic behind it.
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