Matt Selz
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Who’s ready for some more beating and banging? Virginia short track racing is back with this weekend’s trip to Richmond Raceway for the Toyota Owners 400. The track known as the Action Track should be able to provide quite a bit of on-track action with the new aero package that’s on the cars but how will that affect who we’re betting on for the race?
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Toyota Owners 400 Betting Strategies
Richmond has been a track that’s gone through a lot of changes in its time on the NASCAR schedule. It’s currently a three-quarter-mile lap that’s relatively flat. It’s also more of tri-oval layout than a true oval like other short flat tracks, aka more similar to Phoenix than say Martinsville or New Hampshire. All of those tracks are comparable to Richmond though as is Gateway and Nashville somewhat. What does that mean for how we’re betting this weekend? Well, it means a few things.
First, over the last few years it’s been notoriously tough to pass to Richmond and moving up has come down to pit strategy and managing tires better than others. Secondly, we saw a new aero package on the cars in Phoenix this year but we shouldn’t read too much into that since it was still a fairly similar race to previous races at that track. Lastly, we’ll want to see how teams and manufacturers have fared here in the last several races rather than drivers given some of the higher-profile driver changes we’ve had recently.
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Richmond NASCAR Winner Predictions
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Kevin Harvick (+550)
It’s been a while since Harvick was at or near the top of the odds list. This week it makes sense though. He ran well at Phoenix a few weeks ago and on top of that he won the August race here last year. If we delve into the more advanced stats and passed his three top-fives in the last four similar races, it gets more interesting. Harvick has the fastest Green Flag Speed over the last 10 similar races regardless of finish. Combine his recent runs and his long running success in advanced stats it makes sense to see him atop the odds.
Christopher Bell (+750)
There is big time value here with Bell. Over the last 4 races at similar tracks, he’s finished P1, P2, P1, and P6. Aside from that, like Harvick, let’s look at the advanced data and it shows he’s been arguably the best driver at these tracks as well. In terms of Driver Rating, Bell ranks second in the field over the last 10 similar races and in Green Flag Speed he ranks third in the field in that same timespan. He drives for Joe Gibbs Racing, the main Toyota team, and Toyotas have managed to win 6 of the last 10 races at Richmond. This all gives him far too much value at these odds to be ignored.
Ryan Blaney (+1600)
I know we’re all waiting on Blaney to finally put his car in Victory Lane but this weekend might be that weekend. He’s been far too good at these types of tracks to be ignored, especially last year. He led well over 100 laps at both Richmond and Phoenix last year before falling short late in Stage 3. Well, he finished P2 at Phoenix a few weeks ago and if we look at the last eight similar races, Blaney finished in the top-five five times. If you feel more comfortable betting top-5 odds on Blaney that works as well, as well as looking at his teammate in Joey Logano (+1600) as the winner as well with similar results in the same span.
Aric Almirola (+5000)
We’ve reached that time again where we look at long shot bets for Richmond. Almirola is that bet. He’s currently going off at 50-1 on DraftKings despite having a solid enough record at similar tracks to suggest shorter odds. Let’s put it this way, he’s a teammate, and in the same setup as Kevin Harvick, and he’s posted basically identical results as Kyle Busch (+1100) and Alex Bowman (+1800) who are both getting more love this week. Almirola’s driving style does well at short, flat tracks which is exactly what Richmond Raceway is.
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