Matt Selz
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Darlington Raceway in Darlington, South Carolina is one of the toughest tracks every year on the NASCAR schedule. The track known as Too Tough To Tame and The Lady Black is hosting this year’s Goodyear 400 and the much-anticipated Throwback Weekend. We’ve seen a ton of great throwback paint schemes be unveiled this week from Chase Elliott to Denny Hamlin to Kyle Larson. Just because the cars looked good doesn’t mean they’re going to race well though and that’s where delving into the betting odds comes in.
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Darlington Betting History and Strategy
This old Southern gem of a track in the swamps of South Carolina has historically been one of the toughest tracks to be good at consistently in NASCAR. Why? Well, it’s an odd distance — 1.33 miles — and it’s an shape we don’t often see on the schedule in the form of an egg. Couple those two factors with the high-tire-wear racing surface and it’s a daunting task. This is generally grouped in with the steeper intermediate tracks like Las Vegas, Homestead, Dover, and even Auto Club for the tire wear.
In terms of trends at Darlington, over the last 10 races here, the furthest back a winner has come from is P16. That being said though, six of the winners have come from the top-10 while four have come from P13-P16. In that same span, 42-percent of the top-10 finishers in those races have started outside the top-12 in the grid. That’s a tad lower than we see elsewhere for intermediates which isn’t that shocking given the setup of the track and how the tire wear makes passing tricky.
So when we’re betting outright winners we’re looking, generally, for the drivers starting in the top-third of the field but for prop bets we’ve seen top-10 finishes from drivers starting in the 30s before, though rare.
Goodyear 400 Winner Predictions
Kyle Larson (+500 at DraftKings)
Larson has looked very speedy on intermediates this year including last week at Kansas, where tire wear was a bit of a factor. Add to that that he’s finished P2 here thrice in the last five races he’s run here and that makes him the clear favorite. Just how clear? He opened at +650 across the board and has been pushed down to +500 since Tuesday at most books and +400 at some others.
Denny Hamlin (+600 at DraftKings)
Hamlin is one of three drivers with multiple wins here in the last eight races at Darlington. The other two? Kevin Harvick (+1400) and Erik Jones (+5500). The reason Hamlin is far shorter odds is due to the win last week and his overall better car this year and last. Not to mention that Hamlin has the second-best average Driver Rating in the field over the last eight races here as well at 106.7. Even when Hamlin has been counted out here he’s made spectacular drives late in the race to charge to the front meaning he’s never out of it until the checkered flag flies.
Kyle Busch (+1100 at BetRivers)
Busch has been showing a resurgent level of speed this year and has already wound up in victory lane at a track similar to Darlington. His track history here is impressive with four top-seven finishes in the last eight races here. The other thing in his favor? The 8-car, piloted by Tyler Reddick, finished in the top-five in both races here last year. The risk with Busch is that the non-top-seven finishes here have been outside the top-20 so it’s all or nothing with him.
Joey Logano (+1200 at DraftKings)
It’s been a weird year for Logano this year but he got some mojo back last week with a good run at Kansas. Couple that with solid speed at Auto Club and Vegas (before a wreck) and his good track history here and Logano is an intriguing pick. Last year in this car he was one of two drivers to finish top-five in both races including a win in the Spring race. Logano has finished P6 and P10 at two of the similar tracks to Darlington this year as well.
Austin Dillon (+10000 at DraftKings)
Sometimes we have to get weird. While it’s enticing to go with a two-time winner in Jones at 55-1, Dillon is the “safer” long shot. Dillon has flashed top-10 speed in the intermediate package this year at both Kansas and Auto Club but there’s more. He’s also run well at Darlington in the past with the seventh-best average finish (11.9) in the last eight races including five top-11 finishes in that span. Granted, there’s a difference between finishing top-10 and winning, but if you look below that’s also why we’re hedging a bit with a prop. The point remains that if he rans a tad better and catches a break, the payoff could be big.
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Best Prop Bets for Goodyear 400 at Darlington
Kevin Harvick Top-5 Finish (+210 at BetMGM)
Why are we getting this good of return on this prop? I mean seriously. He’s run P5, P9, and P11 at similar tracks this year but at Darlington in the last eight races, regardless of what’s happened elsewhere, Harvick has seven top-six finishes. SEVEN. That includes two wins and a P4 last year when SHR didn’t exactly have speed.
Denny Hamlin Top-5 Finish (+100 at BetMGM)
His stats above should indicate why getting even money on this finish prop is still a solid return. Hamlin has five top-five finishes here in the last eight races and is always a threat at Darlington to compete for the win. Adding in how good Toyotas have been in this package along with Hamlin’s history makes this a solid prop.
William Byron Top-5 Finish (+155 at BetMGM)
Byron nearly won this race a year ago before Logano moved him out of the way with two laps to go. Fast forward to this year and Byron has nabbed a top-five at each of Vegas, Dover, and Kansas which are all comparable in some fashion to Darlington. If he can replicate his run in this race from a year ago he should be a threat at the front of the pack again. If you’re looking for him to win he’s currently going off at +1000.
Austin Dillon Top-10 Finish (+250 at BetMGM)
Here’s that hedge I mentioned above. While it’s a serious drop in return between 100-1 down to 2.5-1, we are getting positive money on a guy who’s pulled this off four times in the last eight races here and five times when factoring P11 finishes. Dillon has improved greatly in the intermediate packages over the last year or so and that includes this year when Kyle Busch joined the team.
Matchup: Bubba Wallace +105 vs Brad Keselowski (DraftKings)
This is an interesting one. Sure looking at track history it certainly seems like Keselowski would be the pick but digging deeper it’s not so clear cut. Over the four races this year that compare to Darlington, Keselowski has posted a 12.7 average finish and Wallace has a 12.5 average… however, that’s not simple either. Wallace blew an engine at Auto Club while running top-10 and if you give him a P9 finish (where he was running at the time of the incident), his average goes to 7.2 in those four races. There’s also the fact that if you look at winner, Top-3, Top-5, and Top-10 bets, Wallace is either equal or shorter odds than Keselowski. So if Wallace has been running better of late and has shorter odds, why is he plus money in this match-up compared to Keselowski’s -130?
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