Matt Selz
Show Bio
We’re going from the shortest track in NASCAR to the longest oval on the schedule this week — Talladega. The chaos that is sure to unfold on Sunday is unrivaled by other tracks outside of Daytona. Don’t worry though, just like the sponsor of this week’s race — the GEICO 500 — this piece can help ensure we see some of that chaos flow our way on Sunday.
GEICO 500 Betting Strategies
Chaos! It’s what we typically think of at tracks like ‘Dega and Daytona and now Atlanta. However, there’s poetry and strategy in what appears to be chaos at first glance. Dating back to 2014, only once has a driver won this race starting from outside the top-20 and 11 times (out of 16 races) the winner has come from the top-10. Hmmm…doesn’t seem too chaotic right? Sure, watching all of the accidents happen certainly seem like chaos but for betting they’re more window dressing. Where the unpredictability comes in comes in the next section more for prop betting. So if we’re sticking with winner bets, take the longer odds for favorites and bet on the guys starting in the top-15.
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Talladega Superspeedway Betting History
Here’s where the chaos comes in. If we look back over the last 10 races at Talladega the top-10 finishes are were things get interesting. More than half, on average, of the top-10 finishers started outside the top-12 starting spots. That includes anywhere from P13 to P40. So while it seems like anyone can finish in the top-10 here, and to a degree that’s true, we’re still looking for the drivers that have done it more frequently than not. That indicates the drivers who have mastered, or at least figured out, this driving style of drafting and the perfect balance of aggression and patience. The best props below highlight the drivers with the best chances of nabbing a top-10 finish on Sunday at Talladega.
GEICO 500 Winner Predictions
Ryan Blaney +1200 (BetMGM)
Blaney’s two wins here are the closest in the history of the track in terms of time gap. That doesn’t matter much for paying out bets though. He is also the only driver with an average finish inside of 10.0 in the last eight races. That automatically puts him in the discussion but so does his overall plate track history at Atlanta and Daytona as well with multiple good runs. If this was another one of his best tracks and he was the betting favorite, the odds would be half as long. Let’s take advantage of getting longer “favorite” odds.
Chase Elliott +1400 (BetMGM)
Elliott is fresh off a top-10 in his first race back from injury. Now he comes to a track he’s won twice before in a car that’s known to have top-end speed in the plate track package. He had top-10 speed at Daytona in the first race of the year and should have that again this week following his replacement having a solid run at Atlanta as well. He has a similar track history here as he did last week at Martinsville and yet he was going off shorter than +800 there and now +1400 here.
Denny Hamlin +1400 (BetMGM)
Hamlin is a two-time winner here since 2014 and he has four top-five finishes in the last eight races; most in the field. He’s been more known this year for his complaining, bemoaning, and podcasting off the track this year than his results on the track but this race can change that. It’s hard to say no to a driver with a record like this at Talladega especially with longer odds than we typically would see for “favorite” tier drivers.
Bubba Wallace +2000 (DraftKings)
For all of the hate he gets, he’s been a very consistent driver at plate tracks including a win at Talladega previously. He’s arguably the best Toyota plate racer right up there with Hamlin. In fact, most times he’s been the Toyota driver that’s led them through the field and made the pit calls. That kind of trust in Wallace should have you trusting his upside at these odds as well.
Austin Dillon +2800 (DraftKings)
Dillon likes to show up at these tracks and his career numbers show that off. His 13.1 average finish in the last eight races here is third-best in the field with seven top-15s which is tied for the most. A driver hanging around the front of the field late in the race is capable of winning any of them. This is the type of driver we need to target this week as consistency should carry some weight.
Michael McDowell +5000 (Caesars)
McDowell is consistently one of the best plate racers in any plate race. He won the 2021 Daytona 500 but has also hung inside the top-10 a lot of the following plate races. That includes finishing P8 and P3 here last year. He’s had the speed to compete too with a P11 and P12 starting spot at Daytona and Atlanta this year already. Longshots can win here and he already pulled that off at Daytona as a 66-1 bet.
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Best Prop Bets for Talladega NASCAR Race
Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +170 (BetRivers)
It hasn’t been a good start to the year for Jones for sure; really the LMC team as a whole. However, this is a track where he’s excelled at in the past regardless of what’s happening elsewhere. As an example, he’s posted five top-10s in the last eight races here which is tied for the most. So getting some of the longest odds on the board for a top-10 prop for a guy with one of the best histories here is a misprice we have to take advantage of.
Chase Elliott Top-10 Finish +105 (BetRivers)
In his first race back from a broken leg at Martinsville he pulled off a top-10. Now comes another tracks he’s been very good at with a couple of wins and five top-10s in the last eight races here. The 9-car has been fast without him in it and now adding his skill to the speed should result in a second-straight top-10 finish.
Kevin Harvick Top-10 Finish +165 (BetRivers)
Harvick has four top-10s in the last eight races here. That’s tied for the second-most in the field. Harvick has also been quick and consistent this year. All of that is good news when coupled with a return of +165 on a top-10 finish which he had the speed to pull off at both Daytona and Atlanta.
AJ Allmendinger Top-10 Finish +200 (BetMGM)
We don’t typically think of Almendinger as a plate racer, but sometimes that’s the thing we need at a track like this. He did finish P6 at Daytona to start the season and is in the same equipment as Justin Haley who people really love this week. We don’t typically see much longer odds for top-10s at tracks like this so these are pretty nice returns for a guy capable of finishing in the top-10.
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