Matt Selz
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It’s Bristol ba-by…oh wait, not quite! It’s the third iteration of the Bristol Dirt Race instead of the standard Bristol race on the fame concrete. That’s right, on Easter Sunday the Cup Series drivers and crews will be getting quite dirty as they go racing on the fastest dirt track around. While it’s going to be awesome to see the slipping and sliding happening all night, that doesn’t mean it’s going to be without it’s fair share of chaos and oddity.
Each year the racing has gotten better here, but there are still some things to be aware of for betting this race.
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Food City Dirt Race schedule
This race weekend is different than most on the schedule in terms of schedule. Typically we see a practice session and qualifying before the race. That’s not exactly the case this weekend, as there’s a different way to set the field for the Food City Dirt Race.
On Friday, weather permitting, there is slated to be a practice session for all teams. However, Saturday evening is when things get interesting with the Heat Races that set the field. The drivers will be divided into 4 groups to fill the heats with the finishing position over the 15-lap heats setting the field. Then at 7:00 pm ET on Sunday evening we get the main event, including stage racing and some wonky pit stops.
Food City Dirt Race Betting Strategies
The first Bristol Dirt race was a disaster; the second one was better, but still chaotic. Here’s to hoping they have even more stuff sorted out this year…but let’s not get our hopes up. The general concept of the race is that Bristol Motor Speedway has covered it’s high-banked concrete surface in Tennessee dirt to make it the highest-speed dirt track around.
You would think that this race would favor the drivers with the most dirt racing experience, right? Well, not so much based on the last 2 races’ results. As we break down the odds, it will be apparent that some times the drivers you would expect to dominate don’t always translate well since they are not used to quite as many cars on this short of a track in a regular dirt-racing event. This race is shorter than a standard Bristol race (250 laps compared to 500), and given the surface we don’t really want to take into account what drivers do on the concrete surface races because they just don’t translate.
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Food City Dirt Race Winner Predictions
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Kyle Larson +550
It’s Larson; it’s dirt…. Enough said. He has been dominant on the surface in general, including a win at a local Tennessee track earlier this week. He’s not had the best luck in the Bristol Dirt Race but has looked strong at times in both events.
Tyler Reddick +600
Reddick led the most laps in last year’s race before getting caught up in a wreck late and finishing worse than he otherwise would have. The speed is showing up in the 45-car the last few races this year and when combined with his driving style, should make him a threat on the dirt of Bristol on Sunday night.
Joey Logano +1000
Logano has been the most consistently high finisher in the first 2 races on the dirt surface. He won the initial one, though helped by single-file restarts, but then ran strongly in the second, as well, to finish P3. That makes him the only driver in the field with 2 top-5 finishes in this race. If you want to bet him as a top-5 finisher, DraftKings still has him at +150 for that bet prior to the heat races.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2000
The dirt racer from Mississippi has shown a burst of speed this year. That’s great coming into a race that uses his skills at this discipline as well. He finished P2 in the first race here before wrecking out in the second. If you can find longer odds for the win then you can take those or hedge a bit and take him at +280 for a top-5 finish. Either way, he should be a contender late in this race given his abilities at this style of racing and glimpses he’s shown here in the past.
Jonathan Davenport +6000
Haven’t heard of him? Well, his nickname is Superman and he’s arguably the best dirt race alive — if not ever. Just last year he won 24 of the 81 races he entered and finished top 5 in 55 of them. Not convinced yet? How about him getting time in the Truck Series race on Saturday night, as well? Look, it’s not a guarantee he does well,; he is 60/1 odds to win. But he is more enticing than the odds suggest he should be. Not ready to dive into the odds to win yet? How about taking him at +800 for a top-5 finish in a Kaulig Chevrolet car? Getting that long of odds on a top 5 is nice, for sure.
Best Prop Bets for Food City Dirt Race
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Joey Logano Group B Winner +230
Logano is facing off against Chase Briscoe, Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain in this group. It’s an interesting grouping with 2 winners of the race and a guy who could have won last year (Briscoe). Why go with Logano? Well, it comes down to not only track history, as mentioned above, but also odds return. He’s going off at +150 for a top-5 finish but +230 here and doesn’t need a top 5, just to finish better than the other 3. So we’re getting a better return and more open finishing position for Logano. It just makes sense.
Chase Briscoe Top-5 Finish +150
Briscoe led a chunk of laps last year — 59 — before using a bold, though ultimately not wise, strategy on the final restart that wrecked him out. His average running position in the race was 7.0, tied for third-best, while he was running P4 to start and mid-race. If he can avoid the strategy mistake this time, while bringing his same ability he should be in play for a top-5 finish.
Ryan Blaney Top-5 Finish +200
For all of the talk surrounding Blaney of late, he’s run well in this race with an average finish of 4.5 in the 2 events. Even starting P25 last year didn’t stop him from grabbing a top 5. So why not ride with the proof on the track and take nice return on this top-5 bet?
Michael McDowell Top-5 Finish +1000
McDowell has improved each of the last 2 races in his finishes going from P12 to P9. He ran inside the top 6 last year, too. McDowell is a sneaky candidate on dirt and he has been proving that the last 2 years including starting P17 and moving up to P6. If he takes another leap forward, or gets a few good breaks, this 10x return on the top-5 finish could very well pay off.
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