Matt Selz
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There are just 4 races left in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season before the playoffs. Michigan, which takes place this weekend, is the only “standard” race left before that cutoff.
The 2-mile Michigan International Speedway is known for high speeds and a wide racing surface. What does that combination mean for betting on the FireKeepers Casino 400? How are we looking at Fords this week with how much pressure they put on their drivers for this track? What are the similar tracks we can look at for Michigan when looking at research? All of those answers plus winner predictions and prop bets are below.
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Michigan Speedway track layout and comparable tracks
The three-quarter-mile Richmond Raceway has been a staple on the NASCAR schedule for a long time and has gone through some different iterations in that span. In it’s current form, it’s been one of the more interesting short tracks on the schedule. Designed in a Tri-oval layout, unlike Bristol or Martinsville, it resembles the shape of an intermediate track just on a smaller scale. That can make racing here a mix of short track bump and runs and trying to setup passes like it’s a 1.33 mile or bigger track. If we’re looking for similar tracks to Richmond, we’re looking at the shorter, flatter tracks on the schedule like Phoenix, New Hampshire, Martinsville, Gateway, and Nashville. The other thing to keep in mind is to not look past 2022 races at those tracks when combining them with Richmond since that was the first year of the Gen 7 car and this short track package.
Betting strategies for the FireKeepers Casino 400
If there is one knock on Richmond Raceway it’s that it can be tough to pass at — like most short tracks. That does mean we have to pay attention to qualifying a tad more than intermediate tracks that we can compare to Richmond. That doesn’t mean that pit strategy won’t play a role, but qualifying is certainly a big advantage. The last pole-sitter to win here was 12 races ago in 2016, but since then we have seen 7 winners who started P9 or closer and another 3 to start P11-P13. At practice we’re looking for drivers with good long-run speed since there are relatively few cautions here and that leads to long green flag runs over the 400-lap race. If you like to bet based on manufacturer, Toyotas have won 9 of the last 15 races here and Chevy has won 2 of the last 5.
Winner predictions for the Michigan NASCAR race
All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Denny Hamlin +600 (Caesars)
When we look at the similar races, Hamlin is the only one with multiple wins. He is also leading the field in top-5 finishes. That’s enough to make him a serious threat. Whether Hamlin wins clean or makes a move to win, it won’t matter if he finishes in victory lane yet again.
Martin Truex Jr. +850 (Caesars)
It’s hard to look past a driver with the best average finish in the similar races to Michigan. Especially a driver with three-straight top-three finishes. Again, we have the same thing with Truex as we do with Hamlin which is that they are in Toyotas, which haven’t done a ton of winning here as of late. That being said they’ve been close to winning and certainly have the speed and cars to be a threat on Sunday.
Kevin Harvick +900
It’s been a good track for Harvick in the past including last year. He won that race a year ago to end his slow start to the year. Perhaps he pulls that off again with five wins in the last seven trips to the track. This might be his best spot, aside from Phoenix, for him to get his last win of his career.
William Byron +1000 (BetRivers)
Byron has simply been fast everywhere this year. That goes for practice on Saturday where he was lightning quick in the 10-lap average. Byron has led the most laps on average in the six similar tracks over the last year and change and has the best Driver Rating as well which indicates he’s been up front and a great consistent driver a lot. Let’s also not forget he has a win in that span.
Ryan Blaney +1200
Blaney pulled off a surprise win at Charlotte earlier this year and looked dominate in that race. Michigan is a similar track in terms of on-throttle time to Charlotte. That bodes well for him. Plus there’s a boost for being in a Ford at Michigan. He’s been a bit more up-and-down in the performance compared to others on this list but the narratives are in his favor with Charlotte and good practice speed in his pocket.
Erik Jones +12500 (Caesars)
Holy long shot batman. Yep, you read that right — 125/1 or +12500. It’s been a rough year for Legacy Motor Sports but Jones has three top-nine finishes in similar races including a P8 here last year. There’s also a narrative for him — he got married mid-week before his home race. He grew up so close to MIS that he can stay at his parents house for this race weekend and still make it to the track on time for practice and the race. That has to count for something right?
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Best prop bets for the FireKeepers Casino 400
Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +330 (Caesars)
Jones has been getting stronger in this package since last year and has three top-10 finishes in the six race span. That includes back-to-back P8 and P9 finishes. There’s also a narrative for him this week which we mentioned above. His +330 odds translate to 33/10 in fractional odds which makes his implied chances 23.26%. Jones has pulled this off 50% of the time so there’s major value in this prop.
Denny Hamlin Top-5 Finish +115 (BetRivers)
This is a hedge, but an educated one. Hamlin is tied for the most top-five finishes in the last six similar races with four. He also has the two wins in that span, including at Pocono. When it comes to strategy races, it’s hard to beat Hamlin’s Crew Chief and pit crew for getting him the needed jumps on pit road to improve track position as well. If he doesn’t win, the odds of him competing for the win are pretty high and thus making a top-five finish a solid value.
Martin Truex Jr. Top-5 Finish +140 (BetRivers)
We’re getting plus odds on this? Really? If we look at the last six comparable tracks, Truex averages a finish of 4.8. I believe 4.8 is better than top-five right? So let’s take the value and run. In fact the last three races in that span — Charlotte, Nashville, and Pocono — he’s finished P3, P2, and P3 respectively. We’ll take it.
Bubba Wallace Top-5 Finish +210 (BetRivers)
This might surprise you but, if we look at the last six similar races at tracks listed above, Wallace is tied for the most top-five finishes in that span — four. I know I stated above that Toyotas haven’t won of late, but we don’t need him to win, just finish top-five which he’s had a knack for pulling off with regularity at this style of race
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