Matt Selz
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St. Louis and World Wide Technology Raceway are the hosts for this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series’ Enjoy Illinois 300. It’s just the second race at this track for the Cup series there’s still a lot of unknowns about how the cars will perform after gathering a notebook of info in last year’s race. However, we do know enough about how this style of track races in order to preview the race for betting and feel good about what to expect for the race.
What can we expect and what can we look for this weekend at the Enjoy Illinois 300? I’ll talk about that in the betting strategy and predictions.
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Gateway track layout
World Wide Technology Raceway, also known as Gateway, is a 1.25-mile track that is relatively flat. In a bit of a nod to Darlington; the turns at either end of the track are different radii, which can make the setup of the car trickier than a normal shorter track. In terms of what tracks Gateway may compare to, Darlington isn’t necessarily one simply because of tire wear, but Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville and New Hampshire are similar enough to use. All of those are flat and similarly tight lines like Gateway. The other things you can look at — and don’t think I’ve lost my mind — are road courses. Those are rhythm tracks and WWTR is also a rhythm still track with braking zones and lines through the corners, as well.
Enjoy Illinois 300 betting strategy
We only have one race at this track to go off of for past results, though that’s not fully true. We can use what we’ve seen at tracks listed above to derive some betting strategy from as well. At the shorter tracks, we’ve seen passing to be tricky in this NextGen car package, though the intermediate package does seem to help rather than the full short track cars. Last year we saw Joey Logano win from P7 and four of the top-10 finishers start P12 or worse and 11 drivers move up at least six spots in the race. So passing, whether on the track or in the pits, is possible here perhaps a tad more than similar tracks, but starting spot is still important. If you want to get the longest odds on drivers you like, betting prior to Saturday morning’s practice and qualifying will be vital to that.
Winner predictions for the Enjoy Illinois 300
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated
William Byron (+700 at BetMGM)
Why Byron and not say Kyle Larson or Alex Bowman? Byron has simply been too consistent to not include. He is just fast everywhere this year and has a couple of wins already in the 24-car this year including Phoenix, a comparable track. The other thing that he has in his corner? The fastest pit crew. We saw pit stops matter here last year as well as similar tracks so having the best should give him an advantage late in the race. Short tracks seem to be in his and HMS’ wheelhouse in the NextGen car and, so I’ll take the longer odds over his teammate in Larson — who is the favorite heading into the week — and feel more comfortable at the same time.
Joey Logano (+1000 at BetMGM)
Like the hedge of a prop bet we give down below, this one is a gut feel. Well sort of, he did win here last year. Granted he has a thing about new tracks and winning them first, but it will certainly boost his confidence heading to the track again knowing he had the setup right last year. He has also been solid at similar tracks this year at Phoenix, Martinsville and Richmond to boot. Logano might be the riskiest winner prediction I give — despite the shortish odds — but they say trust your gut…and here we are.
Denny Hamlin (+1100)
Hamlin has been fast at the shorter, flatter tracks in the NextGen car as have seemingly all Toyotas. It hasn’t necessarily been the best year at the similar tracks for Hamlin having been so-so at Phoenix, Martinsville, and Richmond but he’s got a mojo boost this week. What’s that mojo? Getting one of his seeming rivals suspended in Chase Elliott. Hamlin seems to thrive off people hating him and this week he has the ire of the fans of the sport’s most popular driver powering him.
Kevin Harvick (+1400)
When things are tough and hard to pass is when Harvick is at his best. He’s shown that with seven top-six finishes at the last eight similar races to Gateway and was running well here last year before his tire blew. SHR will also be looking for strong runs from their top drivers, including Harvick, to get past the news about Chase Briscoe using a counterfeit part last weekend. Consistency is the name of the game with Harvick and that’s what we’re banking on again this weekend to land him in victory lane for the first time this year.
Bubba Wallace (+3500)
Why is he this long? Has anyone noticed he has four-straight top-five finishes on all different tracks including one he’d never raced at? To be honest these odds just force us to include him in these predictions. It’s a little unfair for him to be this far down the odds board and at longer odds than the recently penalized Chase Briscoe and even odds with Corey Lajoie just because he’s in the 9-car. Wallace and his 23-car team have been quick and he did also run P9 at Martinsville, another track where it’s tough to pass.
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Best Prop Bets for Gateway
Matchup: Kevin Harvick (-115) over Ross Chastain
I don’t often go with match-up props because of the odds we usually see for the better driver, but this one is different. Harvick has been more consistent at similar tracks including seven top-6 finishes in the last eight similar races. Chastain has been up-and-down this year and especially of late since Trackhouse asked him politely to be less aggressive on the track. The lack of speed from Chastain and the consistency of Harvick, who’s Ford won’t have aero issues this week, gives this match-up to Harvick.
Christopher Bell Top-5 +160 (BetRivers)
Bell has been the most consistent Toyota for much of the last year plus in the NextGen car. That’s what we need for props like this to hit. When we also factor in his six top-6 finishes in last eight similar races to Gateway and that Bell ran well here last year, it’s hard to pass on this prop for a guy who’s been fast everywhere.
Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish +100 (BetRivers)
There are two way we can approach this prop, and the top-10 is one way. The 23XI teams have been great of late with strong finishes across multiple different styles of tracks and that goes for Wallace as well with multiple top-five finishes of late. He didn’t have the cleanest run here a year ago but his teammate, at the time, Kurt Busch in the 45-car did finish P3. So if we just want even money return a top-10 is a solid bet as he’s finished P12 or better in 7-of-the-last-8 events this year. But, if you want more daring odds, he’s +450 at DraftKings for a top-5 finish which he’s managed at Kansas, Darlington, North Wilkesboro, and Charlotte in succession.
Alex Bowman top-10 finish (+100 at Caesars)
Bowman proved that his back is good to go last week after 600 miles at Charlotte. Now comes a track style that HMS has been great at this year. Bowman has a P9 at Phoenix, P8 at Richmond, and P11 at Martinsville prior to getting injured. Add to that that he’s landed in the top-10 in 4-of-last-8 similar races to Gateway and this looks like a solid bet for even money returns.
Joey Logano top-5 finish (+150 at BetMGM)
This one is simply a gut feel. Logano has been the trickiest driver to sort out over the last couple of seasons. However, he has run consistently well at the shorter, flatter tracks over that span including winning here last year. If the bulldog mentality meshes with the proper setup this weekend he could be a contender for the win but also a top-five finishing spot; he’s had four top-sevens in the last eight similar races.
A.J. Allmendinger top-10 finish (+750 BetMGM)
We mentioned above that this track, though it doesn’t seem like it, can be a benefit to drivers who are typically good on road courses due to the rhythm needed. Allmendinger used that to his advantage last year when he started P35 with no practice, after a redeye flight from Portland, and finished P10 in his first race here. Why can’t he do that again? Sure, the Kaulig cars haven’t been as good this year but the track is still the same. If he shows that same skill this year, this is a nice return on a top-10 bet though perhaps the riskiest outcome in this piece.
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