Matt Selz
Show Bio
One of the best race tracks on the schedule is this weekend in the form of Homestead-Miami Speedway. The 4EVER 400 is the second race of the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Playoffs and the second chance to lock into the Championship race. Following the exciting race in Vegas, how are we handicapping the field in Miami?
This is one of Kyle Larson’s best tracks, does that change with his win last week? What can we take strategy-wise from the race in the Next Gen car here a year ago? What are the similar tracks in terms of setup and racing to Homestead? We’ll have all of that, plus winner predictions and prop bet predictions below for this week’s NASCAR Cup series race in Miami.
Betting Trends and Strategy At Homestead-Miami Speedway
This is one of the best tracks on the schedule all year. Why is that exactly? It’s a driver’s track. If a driver doesn’t like the speed in the car, they can move around through multiple grooves and find a line that gives them more speed throughout the race. This is always one of the tracks that drives love coming to because there are many different grooves and they feel like the racing is more in their hands. This is also a different track than the other 1.5-mile layouts on the Cup series schedule. That is because Homestead is a perfectly oval track. None of this tri- or quad-oval configurations like we see at Texas or Kansas or Vegas or Charlotte. The layout makes the setup for the cars easier than most other tracks too. The only caveat to that is tire wear. That’s where a lot of the strategy comes in.
The race is won and lost on who can manage the tires and subsequent green flag pit stops the best. It’s also, historically, been won by drivers starting inside the top-15. In the 24 races in the history of the track, dating back to 1999, only thrice has a winner come from outside the top-15 and 17-of-24 winners have started inside the top-10. That doesn’t mean that drivers can’t move up for prop bets though. It’s possible to get inside the top-10 in the races though. Nearly half of the top-10 finishers in the last five races here have started P13 or worse each race. So in terms of betting outright winners, we’re looking for drivers starting closer to the front and for props it’s really just about who has the speed and track history to finish well.
Winner Predictions For NASCAR 4EVER 400
Kyle Larson (+300 at BetRivers)
Had the whole race gone green last year, Larson would’ve won by 2.5 miles…on a 1.5-mile track. That’s how fast he is here. Granted, he won last week, however, if he wins again this week, he’ll force his Championship rivals to point their way in at Martinsville next week. He is too fast and too good right now to ignore, even at these odds.
Tyler Reddick (+600 at BetMGM)
Reddick may not have a win here yet but his driving style suits the track extremely well. He does have multiple top-five runs and was running top-five last year before a tire issue took him out at lap 242. This is likely Reddick’s last best shot to lock into the championship and he’ll be pushing as hard as he can to make that happen, let’s just hope the tires can take the pushing.
William Byron (+750 at FanDuel)
Byron won here last Spring and was on the pole here last year. Byron has been a dominant car in the intermediate package this year and we should expect that to continue this weekend as Hendrick likely shifts their attention to getting Byron locked into the championship now that Larson already is. When he won he started in the 30s and then led laps from the pole so we should expect him to compete no matter where he starts in the field.
Denny Hamlin (+750 at BetRivers)
Hamlin has found victory lane here twice, just not for a championship. There’s more to this bet than that though. When we look at the similar tracks like Auto Club, Darlington, Kansas, and Vegas, Hamlin is second in key categories like average finish, top-5s, and laps led to only Larson. So in essence we’re getting a discount here. Hamlin has been really making a push in in-race pace down the stretch and expect him to do the same throughout Sunday’s 400-mile event. That’s sure to see him challenge for a win here once more.
Ross Chastain (+1800 at BetMGM)
There are two parts to this Chastain bet. He’s done well here in the past including finishing runner-up but that’s not all. Chastain has posted the fourth-best average finish at mile and a half tracks this year, including his P5 a week ago but not including his win at Nashville. That brings in the second part of this bet: narrative. He won at Nashville, the home track for his team — Trackhouse Racing. Miami is also a pseudo home track with his team’s co-owner Pitbull being from, and residing in, Miami. When we couple the solid runs at similar tracks and the narrative of showing off at home tracks, this bet makes sense.
Best Prop Bets For Homestead-Miami 4EVER 400
William Byron Top-3 Finish (+220 at Caesars)
The tire falloff tracks have been good to Byron and the 24-car team this year. He’s podiumed in half of the eight such races and he won this race a year ago. That’s a nice amount of value along with hedging off of him winning, as well as everyone’s favorite this week Kyle Larson.
Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish (+190 at DraftKings)
Even with it being a subpar year for Bowman, to say the least, he’s still shown up well at intermediate tracks with tire wear. He’s nabbed a top-10 finish in half of the ones he’s run, granted pre-back-injury, however, that still has to account for something as does past showings here. There is too much value in this return to pass this prop up.
Ross Chastain Top-10 Finish (-130 at Caesars)
We mentioned above that he’s been solid at the similar tracks and here in the Next Gen car. He will be a threat, much like he was at Vegas last week, again on Sunday to nab another solid finish and this return still gives us nice value and implied odds value to make it make sense.
