Matt Selz
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The best racing day of the year is capped off with the longest Cup race of the NASCAR schedule: the Coca-Cola 600. There is no race that tests drivers and teams and cars quite like the 600 miles around Charlotte Motor Speedway over the course of the 400 laps. Memorial Day Weekend is thoroughly celebrated during the race in the most patriotic display from NASCAR all year, as well. The 2023 running of the Coke 600 is set to be another great race, but there are concerns about the weather and how the track will change over the 600 miles.
Let’s dive into betting strategies and predictions for the Coke 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
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Betting Strategies for the Coca-Cola 600
The main thing with the Coke 600 is the length of the race. It’s the only 600-mile race on the schedule every year. While the track seems simple enough as a quad-oval 1.5-mile layout, it is more a cookie cutter track than anything, it’s the distance that’s really the challenge here. Every driver in the field is very used to Charlotte and in some ways it’s perhaps the easiest track to set the cars up for. The banking in both sets of corners is symmetrical and the pavement isn’t a big tire-wear threat. With those things eliminated from concerns we’re looking mainly at drivers who’ve had success here in the past as well as in this intermediate aero package in the last two years. Passing in the intermediate package has been fairly easy to come by, and with the nature of this race track position isn’t as king as it is elsewhere. There is perhaps one other thing that’ll play a role in this race weekend: weather.
Weather forecast for Charlotte Motor Speedway
What exactly is the forecast for Charlotte on Saturday and Sunday? Rain…and a lot of it. The chance of rain throughout the day on Saturday is 90-percent and it’s not much better on Sunday at 88 percent. In fact, they already moved up the Xfinity race on Saturday an hour to help avoid the rain shortening that event. If practice and qualifying for the Cup Series is cancelled on Saturday evening, they’ll use the metric they’ve used for the past few years to set the field which could shift things up a bit.
Winner predictions for the Coca-Cola 600
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated
Kyle Larson (+450)
Why not? Larson has been fast everywhere, is coming off a dominating All-Star Race win — granted a totally different style of track — and he won this race 2 years ago. William Byron (+600 DraftKings) is getting a lot of chatter, too, but unlike his teammate Larson has been able to have speed later in races and over longer runs. That’s key this week, as there are bound to be a lot of long runs which are only stopped because of the 3 stage breaks following each 100-lap section.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1000 at BetMGM)
It wasn’t that long ago that Truex had the most dominant win in Coke 600 history by leading 390 of 400 laps. Should we expect that again? No, definitely not. However, the speed is there for him to be a threat again at a distance he is familiar with dominating. He is the only driver in the field with 2 wins in the last 8 races and has the best average finish in the field in that span at 8.0. That’s enough for me.
Kyle Busch (+1200 at BetMGM)
Busch has been the most consistent driver at Charlotte over the last 8 years. That’s a long time to be consistent here. Couple that with his speed in the #8 car this year and that makes for an intriguing combination. Busch has been close to nabbing a second win on the year and that could very well come at a track he loves and one where he is always a contender.
Bubba Wallace (+2000)
Wallace has been a threat at most intermediate tracks over the last 2 years at 23XI. While the track history specifically at Charlotte hasn’t been great, the speed has been there it’s just been matters of mistakes made. Those mistakes seem to be being limited this year which gives confidence that he can stay clean and fast when it matters most: the last 100 laps of Sunday’s race.
Daniel Suarez (+3000 at BetMGM)
People love the speed in the 1 car for Trackhouse so why not the 99 car? Suarez has been just as fast as Chastain at points this year — just not as consistently. Hence the odds difference between them. In terms of track history in the NextGen car, both have topped out at a P15 finish, which isn’t great, but if we’re taking similar cars with similar history then why not grab longer odds?
Austin Dillon (+9000 at FanDuel)
Dillon has won this race before; granted, it was a while ago. He has also been racing well at the intermediate tracks over the last couple of years and that includes Charlotte. The odds are long; but, hey, why not cap off the best day of racing with a longshot who is capable of running strongly over the most grueling race of the year?
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Best Prop Bets for the Coca-Cola 600
Kyle Busch Top-5 Finish (+175 at BetRivers)
The man has finished in the top 5 on 6 occasions in the last 8 Charlotte races and he has been a speed demon this year. Picking up where the 8-car left off has been the theme of this year for Busch and he’s certainly been doing that. There’s little doubt that this race is long enough for him to move up through the field even if he doesn’t have the best qualifying luck.
Martin Truex Jr. Top-10 Finish (+280 at FanDuel)
MTJ has nabbed 2 top 10s in the last 3 races here with a P8 and P6. In the NextGen car, Dillon — and RCR as a whole — has been quite good at this distance of track and setup. This year with his new teammate, Kyle Busch, both have run in the top 5 consistently at intermediate tracks like Charlotte.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Top-10 Finish (+275 at BetMGM)
In the last 3 Coke 600s, Stenhouse has P4, P12 and P7 finishes to his credit and has been solidly fast in the intermediate package this year. One of the things that is underrated about him is his ability to run well at 1.5-mile tracks like Charlotte.
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