Matt Selz
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The Round of 12 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs comes to end this weekend at the Charlotte Roval. Sunday’s Bank of America Roval 400 will be 109 laps of road racing with a lot on the line for all but the two drivers who are locked into the Round of 8. There have been plenty of memorable moments at the Roval in the past few races here, are we in line for another one? Will we see the Chase Elliott epic burnout? Will we see drivers wreck themselves pushing too hard? How will stage breaks factor into the race? All of that plus betting strategies and winner predictions below!
Betting Strategies For The Charlotte Roval
First things first. This is not a standard road course. The name should make that clear. Roval being a portmanteau of Road and Oval pretty well shows that it’s part Charlotte Motor Speedway oval and infield road course layout. That makes this track unique. Sure, each road course is a unique layout from the rest but even the Indy Road Course isn’t comparable here. Why? Simple, steep banking on the oval portion of this track. So how does that effect how we look at this track? Well, we’re mainly taking into account what’s happened here in the past and leaning on the stronger road racers in the field. But, if it’s not like other road courses why does that matter? The key part of this track is the road section and knowing how to make time there makes time over the full length of the lap. There has also been plenty of chaos at the Roval races in the last few years.
From cars spinning, or flying (literally), through chicanes on the front and back stretch, to drivers running right into the wall for Turn 1, to drivers running through the grass in the infield straight. It’s not as variable as say Talladega or some high-variance ovals, but it’s not as calm as Watkins Glen, Indy Road, or Sonoma. A good comp in all honesty is COTA. There are technical sections and tight corners as well as speed stretches much like the Charlotte Roval possesses. Unlike the other road courses though, there will be stage breaks here with cautions that will change up strategies that we’ve seen at other road courses this year. Drivers who need stage points to help their playoff standings might find it tough to win because they’ll pit during the cautions rather than before and thus start further back in the field on the restarts.
NASCAR Bank of America Roval 400 Winner Best Bets
Chase Elliott (+575 at Caesars)
He’s won here twice before and has done so starting in completely different spots in the field. Not to mention in one of the wins he made it tougher on himself with a crash mid-race only to drive up through the field. Sure, it’s not been a typical Elliott season, but he’s far too good at this discipline to not be considered the top threat for the win despite not being in the playoffs.
Tyler Reddick (+800 at BetRivers)
Reddick is out of the playoffs at the moment. However, he’s the first one out which means he doesn’t have that big of a hill to climb to make it. He also has won at road courses previously. Toyotas have been very good at road courses in the Next Gen car and Reddick has taken advantage of the speed previously. He’ll be looking to do that this weekend as Reddick needs all of the points he can get his hands on.
AJ Allmendinger (+1200 at BetMGM)
The Dinger, as he’s known, has won four straight races here in the Xfinity level. Granted, it’s a lower level, but it’s still him on a road course. Allmendinger has more experience at this discipline than anyone in the field and one at Indy Road last year in the Cup Series to boot. We’ve seen non-playoff drivers win in the playoffs and this appears to be a prime spot for one to pull it off.
Chris Buescher (+2200 at BetRivers)
Buescher has been consistently good at road courses for two years now. Now, it’s time to view him as a threat to win. The odds are very nice too for a guy with P11s or better in each road race this year and a runner-up last year. He’s considered one of the best road racers in the field despite not having a win so why not nab him at these odds?
Brad Keselowski (+6600 at Caesars)
Granted, Keselowski hasn’t been good at road courses of late but his teammate has been. Considering they’ve long said the cars are setup exactly the same way, that would indicate there is speed in the 6-car as well. Keselowski also has his back against the wall this weekend being the last driver into the next round of the playoffs, but only with a 2-point cushion. That’s not really enough to point his way in without pushing for a win. He’s not won on road courses before, but given the strength in the RFK cars and his several top-five finishes, he could threaten for a win.
NASCAR Bank of America Roval 400 Prop Best Bets
Chris Buescher Top-10 Finish (+115 at BetRivers)
Buescher has run well not only here but at road races this year. He’s finished P11 or better at all road races this year in what’s been a career year for Buescher. In the last two races here, Buescher’s posted back-to-back top-six finishes.
Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish (+115 at BetMGM)
Suarez has been a consistently good road racer over the last two years, conveniently with the Next Gen car. Trackhouse always seems to set up the cars well for road courses and he’s had a couple of top-10 finishes this year. The Roval hasn’t been as good of a track for him as others, but he’s shown good enough pace to challenge for top-10s previously.
Austin Dillon Top-10 Finish (+400 at BetRivers)
This one is going to take some explaining. Looking at this year’s results on road courses doesn’t give us a great feeling about this to be sure. However, some tracks just click with drivers and this appears to be that one for Dillon. He’s improved his results here every year and nabbed a top-10 finish. He’s qualified well at road tracks this year and could do that once again and hold the spot throughout Sunday’s race.
Chris Buescher Win vs. Martin Truex Jr. (+102 at FanDuel)
Buescher has simply been better at road racing this year. When we look at the last five races at the Charlotte Roval, Buescher has outperformed Truex as well, though the first race is a bit skewed in result, with an average finish two spots better. That’s enough for me to take the plus money in this matchup.
