Matt Selz
Show Bio
The first race at Kansas Speedway on the NASCAR schedule is the Advent Health 400 this weekend. Kansas is widely-acclaimed as one of the best 1.5-mile tracks on the schedule and this weekend should provide another great example of why. The Advent Health 400 should provide as good of action to bet as the Hollywood Casino off Turn 2 at the track does. There’s a lot going on with the race this weekend, so let’s touch on the Kansas City weather and betting strategies before getting to our top picks for Sunday’s Cup Series race at Kansas.
Looking for some bonus bets? With FanDuel Sportsbook’s great sign-up offer, you can get yourself $150 in bonus bets following an initial wager of just $5. Simply click this link to claim their can’t-miss new-customer promo.
Kansas City Weather Forecast This Weekend
First, it was gonna be wet, then it was just going to be hot… like hotter than the F1 race in Miami, now it’s going to be wet and hot. Great, right? Looking at the forecast shows a chance of rain and/or thunderstorms everyday between Friday of race weekend to the following Saturday. Not ideal. However, it does appear the rain is more likely in the late-afternoons and early-evenings which could allow for on-track activity without issue. The heat is the bigger thing of note because of what it does to the cars and track.
Kansas Speedway Track History and Betting Strategies
What does the heat do here? Well, Kansas Speedway, since its inclusion on the schedule in the early 2000s, has been a fairly temperature dependent track. The hotter the air temp, the slicker the surface and the more sliding and multi-groove racing there tends to be. While over the last 10 races here, 80% of winners have started inside the top-10 in the grid with the other two coming from P13 and P23. In that same span, just under 40% of the top-10 finishers have started outside the top-12 in the grid. Passing can happen here, and the more grooves that are available to do that with, the more we typically get. Hence the importance of the heat and the slickness and lack of grip we expect to see. The rain will likely clean the track and the rubber which will change the grip level of the track during the weekend too. What a joy we’re in for.
NASCAR Advent Health 400 Winner Predictions
All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of writing unless otherwise noted
William Byron (+800)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook
Byron has been flying in the intermediate package this year on a variety of tracks. That includes leading nearly 200 laps at Dover last weekend and 176 en route to a win at Vegas. There is little reason to doubt Byron being a threat each week and that’s been the case each time at Kansas with six top-10s in the last eight races at the track. Couple that with his top-rated Green Flag Speed, and we’ve got a winning combination.
Tyler Reddick (+800)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook
Reddick has been dominant here in the past. He started P1 and P2 here last year leading a bunch of laps in each race before having issues arise. If he can keep things clean and harness the speed of his new team, 23XI, it could be a great Sunday for Reddick. The car he’s in now, the 45-Toyota, won this race a year ago running away and his teammate, Bubba Wallace, won here last Fall.
Christopher Bell (+900)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook
Bell has been inching closer to winning here moving up from P8 to P5 to P3 in the last three Kansas races. The speed in the 20-car has been elite for the last year plus and in general the Toyotas have been the fastest cars in the intermediate package in that span. As for conditions being slick, possibly, why not look to a dirt track driver to be able to find the grip and get sideways in the corners? Bell has speed, consistency, and he skill set to be a threat just like he’s been each week this year.
Ross Chastain (+1400)
Available at Caesars Sportsbook
For as controversial as Chastain can be and has been on track, including last weekend, there’s no denying the speed. He’s been one of the fastest cars on track in the intermediate package and has led 90 or more laps a few times this year. The 1-car should have top-flight speed again and in the event that qualifying is rained out, he should be on the pole which would be an advantage here as we’ve seen the pole-sitter win thrice in the last 11 races at Kansas.
Kyle Busch (+1400)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook
Remember how we said how good Reddick has been here previously? Of course you do, it was just two drivers ago, well who’s car is Busch in now? That’s right, the 8-car. Busch has been challenging for wins much of the year and should be again on Sunday as the last two Spring races at Kansas have been good for Busch. In those races, he has a win and a P3.
Bet365 – the world’s #1 sportsbook – has arrived in the United States! If you sign up right now and bet just $1, you can immediately get $200 in bonus bets! Join Bet365 by clicking this link.
Best Prop Bets For NASCAR Advent Health 400 at Kansas Speedway
Denny Hamlin Top-Five Finish (+125)
Available at BetRivers Sportsbook
It’s been an up-and-down start to the year for Hamlin, but the speed we expected to see from him is starting to make an appearance. He’s coming off a top-five last weekend and at Auto Club and Vegas he showed flashes of top-five speed. He’s posted the best average finish in the field here over the last five races including five top-fives, which is the most in the field. If he finds the speed that 23XI, the team he co-owns, has had here, we’ll be in a great spot.
Christopher Bell Top-Five Finish (+140)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook
Bell finished top-five here both races last year and top-10 in four of the last five races at Kansas. In addition to that, he’s been the most consistently quick Toyota on the track for while, especially in Green Flag Speed. In races not including Talladega and Daytona this year, Bell is tied with William Byron for the fastest GFS in the field. That should be enough to nab another top-five at Kansas on Sunday.
Josh Berry Top-10 Finish (+200)
Available at BetMGM Sportsbook
Berry is back in the 48-car this weekend filling in for the injured Alex Bowman. Two things working in his favor here, firstly, Bowman has produced the third-best average finish here in the last eight races (8.3) with five top-10s (second-most in the field and secondly, Berry has already nabbed a few top-10s in the Hendrick Motorsports cars this year, including last weekend. That’s good enough for me to get 2x return on this prop.
Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish (+160)
Available at BetRivers Sportsbook
At the comparable tracks for Kansas, Auto Club and Las Vegas, earlier this year he finished inside the top-10 at both. He also finished P10 here last fall, granted in a cooler race, but has two top-11 finishes in the last four races at Kansas. If he keeps it clean, it should be a solid day for Suarez on Cinco de Mayo weekend.
All of today’s biggest games are available to bet with BetMGM, the premier destination for online sports betting. New customers can earn themselves a $1,000 deposit bonus by signing up right now! Click here to lock in this great sign-up offer.
