Matt Selz
Show Bio
NASCAR, or perhaps you know it as the one with all the left turns, is truly a sport unlike any other. At least in how the sport plays out. In terms of betting it’s just like most sports the books take action on. If you’re new to NASCAR, below is a primer on the sport. The main goal though is to get you interested in betting on one of the most interesting sports around. No matter your betting experience or comfort level, this season primer will give a reference guide to improve your success.
Now for those unfamiliar with my work, I’ve been writing about NASCAR for six years and watching it for 20. I’ve also been named the FSWA Racing Writer of the Year twice and a finalist three times. If you haven’t tailed my picks before, I’ve been posting them for several years in various ways and last year hit on 59 percent of my outright winner picks over the course of the season including numerous winners at 10-1 to 80-1. You can also follow me on Twitter for my views on plays throughout the week.
How Do The NASCAR Track Types Change Our Bets?
There are a few main track types we’ll see over the course of the year. Each has a different strategy and betting style that works best to find the most success. Now, like with all sports, there are outliers that occur but over the long run, these strategies hold true. Let’s highlight some of those differences.
Short Tracks
Short tracks are less than 1-mile in length typically, and I’ve also included a couple of flat 1-mile tracks as well. These offer the best door-to-door racing but what does that mean for betting? If we go back to 2014, there have been 74 races at what are defined as short tracks, and 50 of the 74 winners have started in the top-10 starting spots. There’s not a lot of passing in these races so we’re focusing on the favorites and drivers starting close to the front. That’s not to say longshots can’t hit here, but in general, they’re a lot fewer and further between. As for props, with things like lead changes, cars on the lead lap, number of cars to lead a lap, we’re likely going to take the under a lot, because it’s hard to pass for the lead and it’s easy to lap slower cars.
Intermediate Tracks
Tracks in this category are the most common in NASCAR and are generally ovals from 1.3-2 miles in length. Most of them are 1.5-mile tracks. For these tracks, the betting strategies allow us to take a few more shots on drivers with longer odds but based on how practice and qualifying go, the favorites might still be the popular way to go. There are a few more ways to bet props on these tracks as the variance introduced by the longer lap makes for more interesting props.
Road Courses
These races are unlike the others on the schedule, and it’s not just for the inclusion of the right turns. It’s also due to relatively few laps in the races. Fewer laps means it can be tougher for drivers to move up through the field during a race. Less movement means drivers starting closer to the front tend to win more. There are a decent amount of wrecks in these races. However, they’re typically one-car spins that don’t bring out cautions. Not bringing out cautions means there are fewer restarts to bunch up the field. For betting, focus on the drivers that have a good history on this type of track in their careers. We can also take shots on part-time drivers who only show up to run the road races, known as road-course-ringers.
Superspeedways
There are only two of these tracks, Daytona and Talladega, but the four races they host are easily the most volatile ones on the schedule. They’re even marketed with the fact that there’s going to be a huge wreck. So if they’re so volatile from race-to-race, what is the best strategy for these races? Well, firstly, we advise betting these races lighter than others because of the chaos that ensues. Secondly, these are the races where betting the longshots actually pays off. For example, last year’s Daytona 500 winner was Michael McDowell at 66-1. That bet won for me because of a strategy of picking drivers who complete the most laps per race. Completing the most laps means they’ve been better at avoiding the big wrecks.
What To Expect This NASCAR Season On Pickswise
This year, we’ll have an article out every Thursday for that weekend’s race. It will give you picks for the outright winners that I like the most, as well as the props that I like the best. It won’t just be a list of picks either, as I’ll break down why I like the picks with easy-to-follow statistics to back it up. I’ll include an intro on the track for that race and what pick types fit the style of that race. The pieces will be quick but informative and improve your success at betting a volatile sport. When bet properly, nice paydays can come from this great sport of NASCAR.
At Pickswise we offer free NASCAR Picks for this week’s race including analysis and NASCAR betting advice from expert NASCAR handicappers.
