Ricky Dimon
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The 2022 college football bowl season continues on Monday with the Myrtle Beach Bowl, which pits the Marshall Thundering Herd against the UConn Huskies. Marshall, which upset Notre Dame earlier this year, is 8-4 and riding a 4-game winning streak while UConn recovered from a 1-4 start to qualify for a bowl game right on the cut line, compiling a 6-6 record.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to made for Monday’s Myrtle Beach Bowl.
Myrtle Beach Bowl point-spread prediction: UConn +10.5
UConn is appearing in a bowl game for the first time in 12 years. Will the Huskies just be happy to be there? I doubt it. They should be inspired by the opportunity, and Jim Mora is a veteran head coach who will have his guys ready. Both teams head into these postseason festivities playing some of their best football. Although UConn has some concerning metrics relating to its passing offense, that’s not what this squad wants to do on a consistent basis. Mora and company are focused on establishing the run and winning up front. Plus, nobody wants to throw it against Marshall, anyway. Thundering Herd feature 1 of the best pass defenses in the country based on EPA per play and success rate.
Therefore, the Huskies’ strong rushing attack will be relied upon early and often to keep the chains moving and keep them within striking distance. A spread of 10.5 is big – especially when the game total is only 41.5. Look for the underdogs to be competitive in a low-scoring contest.
Myrtle Beach Bowl over/under prediction: Under 41.5
Marshall’s defense was outstanding throughout the majority of conference play. The Thundering Herd are #1 in the nation in EPA per play on defense and boasted the best EPA per pass defense during the regular season, per College Football Data. Although UConn’s defense is nothing more than around the national average in most categories, those metrics are skewed by an early-season schedule that featured road games against Michigan and NC State — 2 obvious mismatches in the trenches. Marshall will be looking to lean on its defense to win and UConn’s defense should see success against a Herd offense that is outside the top 100 in EPA per play and EPA per pass. As such, expect a low-scoring affair.
Check out our full Marshall vs UConn predictions
Myrtle Beach Bowl best prop bet: Victor Rosa, RB, UConn to score a touchdown (+155)
It is true that Marshall boasts a stellar run defense, but I still think UConn is going to do its best to keep the ball on the ground. The Huskies are heavy underdogs and a good way to stay competitive is to slow the game down and keep the clock moving. It’s also risky to throw the ball on the Thundering Herd, who are 1 of the few teams in the nation to have more interceptions (15) than passing touchdowns allowed (12). Meanwhile, Rosa has scored in 3 consecutive contests and in those 3, he has a total of 5 touchdowns. The freshman from Bristol, Conn. has 9 rushing TDs for the season. Marshall’s run defense is why you can get Rosa way into plus money, and at +155 he has great value to reach paydirt yet again.
We offer a wide range of College Football Picks and College Football Predictions each week featuring the Power 5 teams and top matchups. Be sure to check out our College Football Best Bets for those top plays on this week’s schedule.
