Ricky Dimon
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The clay-court season on the pro tennis tour continues with the Mutua Madrid Open, which is a Masters tournament for the ATP and a Premier event for the WTA. Both are worth 1000 ranking points to the champion, making it the highest tier below the Grand Slams.
It’s a huge fortnight, with pretty much everyone playing unless they are injured. Unfortunately that applies to Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal on the men’s side, making Carlos Alcaraz a huge favorite. All hands are on deck in the women’s draw, but even though that is the case Iga Swiatek is still just as big of a favorite as Alcaraz.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at the odds and my best bets.
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ATP Madrid odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz +10
Stefanos Tsitsipas +900
Daniil Medvedev +1200
Holger Rune +1600
Alexander Zverev +1600
Andrey Rublev +2800
Casper Ruud +3500
Cameron Norrie +3500
Lorenzo Musetti +3500
Felix Auger-Aliassime +3500
Taylor Fritz +5000
Alex de Minaur +5000
Hubert Hurkacz +5000
Karen Khachanov +5000
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +5000
3-star value play: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+900)
After extended struggles with a shoulder injury, Tsitsipas is back in business just in time for his favorite part of the year. Clay has always been the Greek’s best surface and he is coming off a runner-up showing last week in Barcelona. Although a straight-set loss to Alcaraz does not inspire a ton of confidence, at least Tsitsipas would not have to face the Spaniard until the Madrid final. There is some chance – however small — that Alcaraz could lose prior to the title match. In 4 previous Madrid appearances, Tsitsipas has 1 semifinal result and a runner-up performance.
2-star value play: Taylor Fritz (+5000)
Fritz may not be a clay-court master like Tsitsipas, but he is becoming more than capable on the red stuff. He just delivered back-to-back semifinal efforts in Monte-Carlo and Munich, so he has to be feeling good about his clay-court game. Given how well Fritz has played dating all the way back to the start of 2022, it hardly matters what surface is under his feet. Plus, in fast Madrid conditions the big-hitting American should thrive. In the opposite half of the bracket from Alcaraz, Fritz is poised to make a run.
1-star value play: Hubert Hurkacz (+5000)
I usually stay away from Hurkacz when it comes to single matches, but he is generally a good bet on the futures market. That’s because he is sort of an all-or-nothing kind of player. The Pole can lose to pretty much anyone in his first match, but he can just as easily go all the way to the title. Hurkacz’s game is huge and should work very well in Madrid, where he advanced to the quarterfinals last season (lost to Djokovic). Hurkacz is already a Masters 1000 champion (Miami in 2021), so he knows he can get the job done at this level.
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WTA Madrid odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Iga Swiatek +100
Aryna Sabalenka +850
Jessica Pegula +1800
Barbora Krejcikova +1800
Elena Rybakina +2200
Paula Badosa +2200
Coco Gauff +2800
Anastasia Potapova +3500
Petra Kvitova +3500
Caroline Garcia +4000
Victoria Azarenka +4000
Maria Sakkari +4000
Jelena Ostapenko +4000
Daria Kasatkina +4000
3-star value play: Aryna Sabalenka (+850)
It’s difficult to beat Swiatek under any circumstances, especially so on clay. Moreover, Sabalenka just lost to the world #1 in easy straight sets in last week’s Stuttgart final. But there is plenty of good news for the Belarussian. One, at least she made it to the Stuttgart championship match. Two, as the second seed she is on the opposite side of the Madrid draw from Swiatek so a rematch would not take place until the final. Three, for Sabalenka conditions in Madrid are the best among all clay-court tournaments. It plays quite fast at high altitude, so the Australian Open winner has every chance at adding another title to her 2023 haul.
2-star value play: Elena Rybakina (+2200)
Not unlike Sabalenka, Rybakina will feel great about the playing conditions in Madrid. Those 2 women wield the biggest serves on tour and among the biggest forehands. They are more than capable of blowing opponents off the court at this 1000-point tournament. Rybakina’s 2023 campaign includes runner-up performances at the Australian Open and in Miami plus a triumph in Indian Wells. She has a tough draw this fortnight in Swaitek’s quarter of the bracket, but that’s the main reason she has long +2200 odds – and that gives the Kazakh awesome value.
1-star value play: Jessica Pegula (+1800)
I’m back on the Pegula bandwagon for this event, albeit as a small 1-star play. The American has a favorable enough draw in a relatively soft quarter and she would not have to face Swiatek until the semis and either Sabalenka or Rybakina until the final. Pegula has reached the semis of her last 2 starts (Miami and Charleston); there is no reason why she can’t go 2 rounds farther in Madrid, where she finished runner-up last spring.
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