The NFL season is rapidly approaching with the preseason now underway. But before the season even begins, there are plenty of opportunities to make a bet or two by taking a deep dive into the futures market. Futures markets that are available consist of the Super Bowl winner, Conference winner, player awards and much more. One of the niche markets is which player will score the most touchdowns in the league this upcoming season. That’s a market I’ve decided to look at for this article, so let’s take a look at the odds, the history and my best bet for the player that I believe will lead the NFL in touchdowns in the 2023 season.
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Most NFL touchdowns scored in the last decade
Before we get into who could lead the league in touchdowns in 2023, let’s take a look at who led the NFL in touchdowns in each season in the 10 years.
2022: Austin Ekeler (LAC) – 18 TD
2021: Austin Ekeler (LAC) and Jonathan Taylor (IND) – 20 TD
2020: Alvin Kamara (NOR) – 21 TD
2019: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) and Aaron Jones (GB) – 19 TD
2018: Todd Gurley (LAR) – 21 TD
2017: Todd Gurley (LAR) – 19 TD
2016: David Johnson (ARI) – 20 TD
2015: Doug Baldwin (SEA), Devonta Freeman (ATL), Brandon Marshall (NYJ), Allen Robinson (JAX) – 14 TD
2014: Marshawn Lynch (SEA) – 17 TD
2013: Jamaal Charles (KAN) – 19 TD
2012: Arian Foster (HOU) – 17 TD
Most NFL touchdowns scored in 2023 odds
Now, let’s see the odds for the most rushing and receiving touchdowns, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rushing touchdowns
Nick Chubb +750
Jalen Hurts +750
Derrick Henry +900
Jonathan Taylor +1100
Josh Jacobs +1200
Austin Ekeler +1400
Saquon Barkley +1400
Bijan Robinson +1400
Tony Pollard +1800
Receiving touchdowns
Ja’Marr Chase +700
Travis Kelce +750
Cooper Kupp +1000
Davante Adams +1000
Justin Jefferson +1100
AJ Brown +1200
Tyreek Hill +1200
Stefon Diggs +1200
CeeDee Lamb +1500
If you look at the touchdown leader in the last decade, you’ll see a trend start to emerge. Running backs have dominated this futures market, and it’s not hard to see why. A back that gets 20+ touches in a game should get several opportunities while his team is in the red zone, giving him a chance to score 6. Also, running backs who can break into space for receiving touchdowns will be targeted a lot in the red zone. Austin Ekeler is a prime example of this since the Chargers running back led the NFL in touchdowns in the last 2 seasons.
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Most NFL touchdowns scored in 2023 best bet: Jalen Hurts (+750)
One of the favorites to lead the NFL in touchdowns this season is the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback, Jalen Hurts. The quarterback finished last season with 13 rushing touchdowns, which tied for the 4th most touchdowns in the league. It may seem hard to believe but Hurts finished with the same amount of touchdowns as Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey. His running game was just a small part of what made his 2022 season so special, and considering how it ended, I’m expecting Hurts to come out even hungrier to win this season.
In the backfield, the Eagles replaced Miles Sanders with D’Andre Swift, which should benefit Hurts since Swift is more of a receiving back whereas Sanders handled a lot more carries. With Hurts having more opportunities to run, I think he has a chance to run for 15 touchdowns which should put him in a great position to lead the league in scores.
Most NFL touchdowns scored in 2023 longshot: Bijan Robinson (+1400)
At 14/1 odds, I’ll happily take a stab at Atlanta’s 1st-round pick. Robinson tore it up at Texas and finished his collegiate career with 20 touchdowns in his final season. He can carry the ball 20+ times a game and can also be a threat to break from the backfield to open space for a reception too, making him the ideal running back combination. But perhaps the biggest reason to take a shot on Robinson is because of the team he’s on. The Falcons are in full rebuild mode, and Robinson is at the forefront of Atlanta’s new era. He will be the centerpiece of an offense that has Desmond Ridder at quarterback along with a very below-average wide receiver group. If Robinson can stay healthy, he should be given plenty of opportunities to score for the Falcons.
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Pickswise is the home of free Expert NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Be sure to check out all of our season previews and NFL Futures Bets leading up to the 2023 NFL Season.
