Clevta’s Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts best bet: Steelers +2.5 (-110)
In a battle between two low-scoring, defensive-minded defenses, I am taking the points with Pittsburgh. It’s just hard to trust the Colts against a defense that can’t get pressure. In three games with TJ Watt in the lineup, the Steelers’ defense has produced a -0.09 EPA per play, equivalent to the 3rd best defense in the NFL. Now they get the worst offense in the NFL in the Colts. The Colts have faced five top-12 EPA defenses, and they’ve averaged 14.8 ppg in those games and have not cleared 17 in any of those games.
Don’t miss our Steelers vs Colts Same Game Parlay at +601 odds
Pittsburgh blitzes at the 5th highest rate this season, and Matt Ryan sits 31st in PFF grade against the blitz. Watt and company should harass Ryan all night and keep the Steelers in this game. Not that the Pittsburgh offense is anything to brag about but considering they have faced the single toughest schedule of opponents in the NFL this season, this Colts team should breathe a sigh of relief in this game. In fact, the 23rd-ranked Saints team, by DVOA, was the only team all season that Pittsburgh has faced season that is worse than 15th by DVOA. Now they get a 29th-ranked Colts team.
After facing Josh McDaniels and Nick Siriani back to back, Jeff Saturday is at a clear coaching disadvantage against Mike Tomlin. This is also typically a great spot getting Mike Tomlin as an underdog since Tomlin is 46-28-3 ATS as an underdog in his career.
Lock in Prop Holliday’s best player props for Colts vs Steelers
Clevta’s Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts best prop bet: Colts team total under 20.5 points (-125)
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Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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