Week 16 of the NFL season concludes with the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Our NFL expert, Clevta, has a best bet and predictions for the game.
Clevta’s Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts best bet: Colts +4 (-110)
You might not love taking the Colts after last week, and I get it, but there is no team you can trust less when laying over a field goal more than the Chargers. The Colts, as bad as they’ve ended games the last two weeks, have played pretty well overall, considering they had to face two really good teams on the road in Dallas and Minnesota. They were playing blow-for-blow with Dallas until early in the 4th quarter when a series of random fluky turnovers made the final score look like a beatdown. Getting outscored 58-0 in 4th quarters and overtime in the last two games is an incredible stat. For the season, Indy is 5-3 ATS as a dog and 2-0 at home. This is a team that beat the Chiefs and was leading the entirety of the Eagles game at home until losing in the last minute. They are fully capable of hanging with a Chargers team that is 4-5 ATS and only 6-3 straight up as a favorite of over a field goal the last two seasons.
I don’t see a downgrade from Matt Ryan to Nick Foles at all here. Maybe 0.5 points at the absolute most, but how can anyone consider this a downgrade? Ryan is 30th out of 38 QBs in EPA per play and dead last in air yards. He’s also a complete statue. Foles started one game last year and went on the road in bad conditions in Seattle and posted an excellent 0.242 EPA per drop back, and they beat the Seahawks as big underdogs. In 7 starts in 2020, Foles posted a -0.051 EPA per play, 1.7 CPOE on 8.1 air yards. That compares to Ryan’s -0.053 EPA, and -0.1 CPOE on a league-worst 6.2 air yards. Foles is better and can get out of the pocket and run if need be.
Foles finished 8th in 2020 with a 13% deep pass rate and clearly will get the ball down the field – or at least attempt to. At worst, he will take more deep shots for guys like Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman. Pierce leads the team by far with 14 targets of 20+ yards down the field. Look for the offense to open up a bit more on those deep balls. This line opened Chargers -3, and once Foles was announced and immediately jumped to 5 and then back down to 4. I think the 3 is correct, and at 4, it’s good value when I don’t believe Foles is a downgrade. Not that Zack Moss and Deon Jackson are good RBs, but against a Chargers run defense that has been gashed all season, they can do just enough to help Foles in this game.
Justin Herbert is great, but he has struggled against Gus Bradley’s cover-3 defense historically. Since the beginning of last season, Herbert ranks 21st in completion %, 34th in YPA and has a 1.9% INT rate. That compares to a 2.2% INT rate against other coverages. The Colts defense has shown up all season and sits 10th in EPA and top 14 against both the run and pass in DVOA. It is a Monday Night Football game, and that defense is embarrassed after last week, so I don’t believe motivation will be an issue tonight. The Chargers’ pass offense has only faced two top 10 EPA defenses all season which came against the Niners and Broncos. LA posted EPA performances below what those defenses allow on average and posted the 11th and 8th-best EPA games that those defenses allowed this season.
They clearly have not outperformed expectations against good pass defenses. The one area where the Chargers can exploit the Colts is throwing to Austin Ekeler. The Chargers are #1 in my adjusted target rate to RBs, while the Colts are 32nd in allowing targets to RBs. I am sure the Colts would welcome continued dump-offs to Ekeler instead of downfield shots to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but that’s how the Chargers will likely extend drives.
Lock in Prop Holliday’s best player props for Chargers vs Colts
Clevta’s best prop bet: Alec Pierce over 35.5 receiving yards (-110)
Going from Matt Ryan to Nick Foles from an aggressive standpoint is massive. Ryan is last in the NFL in air yards, and in 7 starts in 2020, Foles finished 8th with a 13% deep pass rate. Pierce leads the team by a mile with 14 deep targets and he is a big-time speed wide reciever. It may only take one reception to clear this hurdle, and he won’t depend on big volume. He has cleared this figure in half of his games this season, but with the upgrade in targets on routes that he typically runs, this over looks good to me.
Our expert has two Chargers vs Colts touchdown scorer best bets!
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Clevta has been a successful NFL handicapper for over a decade. His approach is a combination of bottoms-up fundamental team and matchup analytics along with a deep knowledge of the betting market to help drive success.
He has been a regular contestant in the Westgate NFL Supercontest and Circa Millions, where he has posted an aggregate 56% winning percentage, including four separate seasons with a win percentage of at least 60%. Now he brings his expert NFL handicapping skills to Pickswise.
You can find more of Clevta’s weekly NFL game analysis at ClevAnalytics.com.
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