Caleb Wilfinger
The MLB season is back, and the first week of the campaign has already produced some tremendous battles on the diamond. While there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action on the diamond this season, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.
The NRFI/YRFI market was profitable for our MLB handicapping team last season, so let’s keep that momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies: YRFI (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Our best bet in the YRFI/NRFI market takes us to Philadelphia on Thursday for a matchup between the Rockies and Phillies. Citizens Bank Park should feature excellent hitting conditions for this matchup, as temperatures are expected to be around 71 degrees at first pitch, with 14-16 mile per hour winds blowing out to center field. It also helps matters that we’ve got a pair of bad starting pitchers on the mound on Thursday, with Antonio Senzatela taking the mound for the Rockies, while the Phillies will counter with Taijuan Walker.
Senzatela has long been a pitcher that I look to fade every chance I get, and Thursday’s contest is no exception. In his first start of the season, the veteran right-hander allowed a whopping 9 hits and didn’t record a single strikeout, registering a 23.17 xERA in the process. He’ll have a very difficult challenge against a Philadelphia lineup that should be able to put the ball in the air against a vulnerable pitcher. On the other side, Taijuan Walker is coming off a disastrous 2024 season in which he posted a 7.10 ERA and identical xERA, along with ranking in the bottom 5% of all qualified starters in a myriad of different metrics. Walker’s stuff doesn’t appear to be improved heading into this season, which presents Philadelphia with a major issue as the Phillies look to eat innings in the regular season before likely removing the right-hander from the mound altogether come playoff time. Until then, the Phillies are stuck with Walker — and I’ll grab any YRFI price I can get when looking at this pair of starting pitchers.
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