Caleb Wilfinger
The MLB season is rolling along, and the first month of the campaign has already produced plenty of exciting action on the diamond. While there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action this season, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.
The NRFI/YRFI market was profitable for our MLB handicapping team last season, so let’s keep that momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs: NRFI (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Our best bet in the YRFI/NRFI market takes us to Chicago for a matchup between the Phillies and Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball. Both of these teams feel like contenders in the National League, and this could end up being a future playoff series preview come October. And even though Saturday’s contest was a higher-scoring affair, I’m of the belief that we’re getting a lower-scoring game on Sunday. With that in mind, I’m anticipating that the pitchers will have the early edge in this game, which is why I’m targeting a scoreless opening frame.
Wrigley Field should feature favorable conditions for both starting pitchers in this matchup, as temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s at first pitch, with around 8 mile per hour winds. It also helps matters that both starting pitchers are due for a bit of positive regression, particularly Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, who has been absolutely rolling (8 earned runs allowed over his last 22.1 innings pitched) after surrendering 6 earned runs in his first outing of the campaign. Taillon has plenty of familiarity with this Phillies lineup, and he should start off strong at home in this one.
As for the visitors, the results for Aaron Nola have certainly been underwhelming over his first few outings (6.43 ERA, 20 earned runs allowed in 28 innings pitched). However, Nola’s underlying metrics (4.57 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 24.6% strikeout rate) now suggest that he’s become a bit undervalued in the market compared to where he’s actually at as a pitcher. With that in mind, even though Nola doesn’t appear to be what he once was, the right-hander should put forth an effective outing in a ballpark that is playing in conditions that are conducive to a lower-scoring game. All of the above points me in the direction of the NRFI on Sunday.
