Caleb Wilfinger
The MLB season is rolling along, and the first month of the campaign has already produced some tremendous battles on the diamond. While there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action on the diamond this season, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.
The NRFI/YRFI market was profitable for our MLB handicapping team last season, so let’s keep that momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games.
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets: NRFI (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Our best bet in the YRFI/NRFI market takes us to Queens on Monday for a matchup between the Phillies and Mets that could end up being a future playoff series preview come October. Despite the potency of both of these lineups, I’m anticipating that the pitchers will have the early edge in this game, which is why I’m targeting a scoreless opening frame. Citi Field should feature favorable conditions for both starting pitchers in this matchup, as temperatures are expected to be around 54 degrees at first pitch, with around 9 mile per hour winds, along with a slight chance of rain as well. It also helps matters that both starting pitchers have seen success against the opposing lineups historically, particularly Mets starter Tylor Megill, who is already in the midst of a very solid season (1.40 ERA, 3.40 xFIP, 23.3% strikeout rate).
As for the other side of things, the results for Aaron Nola have not been up to standard over his first few outings (6.65 ERA, 16 earned runs). However, Nola’s underlying metrics (4.01 xERA, 3.44 xFIP, 25% strikeout rate) now suggest that he’s become a bit undervalued in the market compared to where he’s actually at as a pitcher. With that in mind, even though the Mets have seen Nola a ton in recent seasons, the right-hander should put forth an effective outing in a ballpark that should be conducive to lower scoring. All of that points me in the direction of the NRFI on Monday.
