Kevin Davies
Show Bio
The regular season is officially over and that only means one thing: postseason baseball. The regular season ended on Monday afternoon after the Braves and Mets split the doubleheader, meaning both teams went to the postseason and the Diamondbacks were eliminated. There are 12 teams remaining who all have the same goal, but it won’t be easy. The Dodgers are unsurprisingly the World Series favorite with their star-studded lineup and they are closely followed by Bryce Harper and the Phillies and then Aaron Judge and the Yankees. But could we have a repeat of last season and have a dark horse run the table? There’s a lot to get into, so let’s not waste anymore time. Let’s dive into the current World Series odds, a preview of the postseason, and my World Series best bets.
2024 MLB World Series Odds
Here are the current World Series odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
Philadelphia Phillies +380
New York Yankees +450
Houston Astros +850
Cleveland Guardians +1100
San Diego Padres +1100
Baltimore Orioles +1300
Milwaukee Brewers +2000
New York Mets +2300
Atlanta Braves +2300
Kansas City Royals +3000
Detroit Tigers +3000
Keep in mind that you should shop around at different sportsbooks depending on which team you want to take. For example, the Phillies are +380 at FanDuel but +475 at DraftKings.
2024 MLB Postseason Preview
Was there even a doubt that the Dodgers were going to be the favorite? It’s been like that for the entire season so it wasn’t a shock to see Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers with sky-high expectations. But there are plenty of questions regarding their postseason starting rotation because… it’s not great. Could that open the door for the Phillies, Padres, or Brewers to steal the National League pennant? Those three teams certainly have a better postseason rotation, so the question comes down to: is offense or pitching more important in the postseason?
I don’t even need to think about that answer: pitching. Look at last postseason for example. The Dodgers were expected to run the table but got swept in the first round because they threw Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller, and Lance Lynn in 3 games. And the teams that went deep into the postseason? The Phillies had Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez while the Diamondbacks had Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Brandon Pfaadt. Pitching means everything in the postseason, so which teams have the balance of a solid starting rotation with an above average lineup? That’s how you weed out the contenders and pretenders.
2024 MLB World Series Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies (+475)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Phillies have everything you could want to see from a postseason team. First, they have the best postseason rotation of any team: Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez. Wheeler was in the Cy Young discussion since Opening Day and got even better as the season went on considering he posted a 1.62 ERA in August and a 2.23 ERA in September. His sidekick is Aaron Nola, who had a solid 2024 campaign and we can’t forget about his dominance in the 2023 postseason. Nola was 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 4 starts last postseason and played a crucial role in getting the Phillies to the World Series. Next up is the unsung hero of the rotation – Cristopher Sanchez. The lefty had a breakout 2024 season as he posted a 3.32 ERA in 31 starts. He was also incredible at home as he posted a 2.21 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park this season, so expect the Phillies to make sure his starts line up at home. And finally, Ranger Suarez was nearly perfect in the first half of the season. He’s dealt with some injuries in the second half, but he’s built for October as he posted a 1.23 ERA in the 2022 postseason and then a 1.93 ERA in 2023.
Secondly, what’s not to love about their lineup. The Phillies finished the regular season ranked 4th in batting average, 5th in on-base percentage, 5th in OPS, and 8th in wRC+. A big reason for their success is their elite top of the order, but also the depth at the bottom of their lineup. I’m expecting their postseason lineup to be Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Bohm, Castellanos, Realmuto, Stott, Marsh, and Rojas. That might just be the best lineup in the postseason. And finally, the Bank. I’m talking about Citizens Bank Park which is arguably the best home-field advantage in the postseason. It’s extremely hard for other teams to have success in Philly while the Phillies feed off the energy. They’ve proven that they can handle the postseason, and since their team is even stronger this year, I’m drawn to the Phillies once again.
2024 MLB World Series Longshot Best Bet: San Diego Padres (+1200)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
It’s crazy to consider the Padres as a “longshot”, but at these odds, that’s how I would classify them. San Diego nearly stole the NL West from the Dodgers in the final week of the regular season but came up just short. They head into the postseason as the top Wild Card spot in the NL and that gives them a best-of-3 series against the Braves. With Michael King, Dylan Cease, and Joe Musgrove as the top 3 arms for the Padres, I like their chances of winning 2 games against Atlanta. If they win the Wild Card round, that pins them against the Dodgers in the NLDS. And it’s not that I dislike the Dodgers, but I think their postseason rotation will be their demise. Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a great 1-2 punch and should be able to win them a game or two. However, Walker Buehler and Landon Knack struggled down the stretch in the regular season and could be a problem in the postseason. In short, I think the Padres could knock off the Dodgers in a best-of-5 series.
That leaves the NLCS and then the American League pennant winner, but those teams should be scared of the Padres. San Diego has an elite 1-2-3 punch in the rotation and arguably the best bullpen in the postseason with Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, Yuki Matsui, Adrian Morejon, and Robert Suarez. And at the plate, the Padres have a phenomenal lineup that is full of contact hitters (Luis Arraez), power hitters (Fernando Tatis Jr.), and clutch hitters (Jackson Merrill). I expected the Padres to be below +1000, so there’s plenty of value getting them at 12/1.
