Kevin Davies
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Postseason baseball is off and running as the action kicked off yesterday. The Tigers, Royals, Mets and Padres took a 1-0 lead in their respective Wild Card series and are now just 1 win away from advancing to the Divisional Series. Today’s action features all 8 teams back on the diamond, so here are my MLB best bets for Wednesday’s Wild Card action. You can also find out our MLB picks for each game today, with our experts currently on a HUGE 10-2 run!
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros best bet: NRFI (-130)
We got exactly what we expected from Tarik Skubal in the series opener. However, now begins the problem for the Tigers. Skubal was the only reliable starter that Detroit had which leaves them at a huge disadvantage for the rest of the series. AJ Hinch announced that he will deploy Tyler Holton as an opener for the second game of the series before Casey Mize takes the bulk of the middle innings. In my opinion, the best value is in the first inning. The lefty was one of the best relievers in the regular season as he posted a 2.19 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 66 appearances. Hinch began to use Holton as a starter down the stretch of the season and his success didn’t stop then. In 9 starts, Holton allowed just 3 runs, 12 hits, and 3 walks in 17 innings. The lefty held hitters to a .191 batting average and .529 OPS in those 9 starts.
Hunter Brown looked to be heading down the path of a lost cause until he developed a sinker. Since then, he’s become the future of the Astros rotation. Brown has a 2.26 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the second half of the season and has limited hitters to a .221 batting average and .225 xBA in that span. This won’t be the first time that Brown has faced the Tigers this season either since he put together 2 quality outings against Detroit in the regular season. In 2 starts, he allowed just 1 run and 10 hits with 16 strikeouts in 12 innings. Combine that with the fact that he’s thrown a scoreless first inning in 9 of his last 10 starts and I love the chance of a quick and easy first frame in Houston.
Read our full Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros prediction for Game 2 today
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles best bet: Under 7.5 (-105)
The series opener was the opposite of a barnburner. The 2 teams combined for just 10 hits and 1 run with the only RBI coming from Bobby Witt Jr. I wasn’t too surprised to see the Royals lineup unable to string hits together since they finished September ranked 30th in batting average, on-base percentage, OPS, and wRC+. Kansas City’s slump in September concerned me as they came into October, and it’s clear that the day off on Monday didn’t do much to jump-start the offense. I had very little faith in them yesterday and I still have no faith in them today against Zach Eflin. Eflin was an important trade deadline acquisition for the O’s and he recorded a 5-2 record with a 2.60 ERA in 9 outings with Baltimore in the second half of the season. I’m expecting him to go at least 5 innings before handing off the duties to the bullpen.
Baltimore has lost 9 straight postseason games. It’s the longest active streak in baseball which is a record that nobody wants to have. But the bottom line has been that the Orioles offense falls apart in the postseason. Last year, the O’s were swept in 3 games. And yesterday, they managed just 5 hits and couldn’t hit with runners on base. Part of that was facing the fabulous Cole Ragans, but it won’t get any easier today against Seth Lugo. The reliever-turned-starter was phenomenal in his first season in Kansas City with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 33 starts. He ended the season allowing less than 2 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts and comes into this start very well-rested since he hasn’t pitched more than 2 innings in a start since September 22. Between a rested Lugo and a surging Royals bullpen, I can see another low-scoring game happening in Baltimore.
Read our full Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles prediction for Game 2 of their Wild Card series
