Kevin Davies
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It’s the first day of the postseason! The day begins in Houston between the Tigers and Astros before the Royals and Orioles tip off soon after in Baltimore. I have a best bet in both of the games today, but first, make sure to check out my MLB World Series Preview and Best Bets. Now, let’s get right into it!
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros
Best Bet: First 5 Innings Under 3.5 (-135)
The postseason begins with a pitching matchup between Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez. The Tigers snuck their way into the postseason with the help of a second-half collapse by the Twins and gave everyone what they wanted to see: Skubal in the postseason. Skubal won the Triple-Crown in the American League which means he earned the most wins, most strikeouts, and lowest ERA of any AL pitcher. It’s an incredible hard feat and the 27-year-old will more than likely be crowned the AL Cy Young in a few weeks too. The lefty was fantastic in September as he posted a 2-0 record with a 1.52 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in 4 starts. And looking at a bigger sample size, he was 8-1 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and held hitters to just a .219 xBA in the second half of the season. But perhaps even worse for the Astros is that Skubal had 6 days to rest in between his final start of the regular season and Tuesday’s Wild Card matchup. An ace on extended rest is very dangerous in the postseason.
It’s a southpaw showdown in Houston since the Astros will counter Skubal with Valdez. Valdez was phenomenal in the regular season with a 2.91 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 28 starts. He only got better with time too since the lefty recorded a 2.90 ERA in July, a 1.59 ERA in August, and then a 1.73 ERA in September. That led to him having a 1.96 ERA in 12 starts in the second half of the season and he limited hitters to a .168 batting average and .199 xBA in that two and a half month span. On Tuesday afternoon, Valdez will face a Tigers lineup that ranked 27th in batting average and OPS against left-handed pitchers in the second half of the season. I’m expecting both Skubal and Valdez to go at least 5 innings and I don’t predict more than 3 runs being scored by the offenses.
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles
Best Bet: Orioles ML (-155)
The O’s are back in the postseason and looking for a different result from last time. In 2023, the O’s had a bye to the ALDS and their postseason run was cut short as the Rangers swept them in 3 games. Fortunately for Baltimore, they have a new ace to lead them. Corbin Burnes had a Cy Young caliber campaign as he accumulated a 2.92 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 32 regular season starts. And as the season went on and the tension got high, Burnes only got stronger. Burnes allowed just 5 earned runs in his final 35 innings which spanned 6 starts. In that span of outings, he held hitters to a .200 batting average, .222 xBA, 26% strikeout rate and 30% hard-hit rate. The Baltimore ace will be backed by a strong bullpen that is well-rested and ready to cover however many innings are needed. I’m expecting to see Jacob Webb, Keegan Akin, Yennier Cano, and Seranthony Dominguez in relief on Tuesday if needed.
I’m not fading the Royals because of their pitcher. Cole Ragans has become the new ace in Kansas City and was nearly unhittable down the stretch. But here’s the part that was worrying: Ragans had a 1.08 ERA and limited hitters to a .169 batting average over 4 starts in September but only earned the win once. That’s because the Royals lineup fell into an extended slump in September. Kansas City finished September ranked 30th in batting average, on-base percentage, OPS, and wRC+. In their final 11 games, the Royals went over 4 runs just once. I can’t trust their lineup right now since teams have learned to work around Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez and get to the bottom of the order.
