Caleb Wilfinger
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Postseason baseball is off and running, and we’ve already seen 3 teams eliminated after just 2 games in the Wild Card series. The Tigers, Royals and Padres swept their respective Wild Card series and are now into the Divisional Series, which will get underway on Saturday. Today’s action features just 2 teams back on the diamond, as the Mets will take on the Brewers in Milwaukee in a winner-take-all Game 3 showdown. This should be a fascinating contest, and I’ve got an MLB Wild Card best bet for Thursday’s Game 3 action involving the starting pitcher for New York. You can also find out our MLB picks for Mets vs Brewers as well as every game throughout the postseason, with our experts currently on a 12-4 run!
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers best bet: Jose Quintana under 15.5 outs recorded (-160)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -190. Under 2.5 earned runs allowed also playable to -150.
While the majority of the MLB Wild Card series have already wrapped up, the sole Game 3 matchup on Thursday presents us with a value bet in the prop market for Jose Quintana to record 15 outs or fewer. Elimination games are often great excuses for managers to trust their bullpens, and that trend has continued to bear out time and again in these Game 7 (or in this case, Game 3) situations in recent years. The Mets should undoubtedly keep their 35-year-old starter on a short leash in this game, and it doesn’t help matters that the Brewers are exceptionally patient at the plate. Milwaukee see the most pitches per plate appearance in baseball this season, and the Brewers have the second-lowest chase rate of any team in the majors, which makes getting quick outs a very difficult task. Quintana did just face the Brewers on September 28 and only lasted 4.1 innings, allowing 2 runs on 5 hits while walking another couple of hitters. Due to the fact that Quintana would have to get at least one out in the 6th inning of this game to clear this number, I feel very comfortable laying some heavy juice on this one.
If this is too steep of a price for you, then I also don’t mind taking a stab at Quintana’s under 2.5 earned runs allowed prop if you’re looking to drink a bit less juice with your wager. In many ways, both of these props are reasonably correlated. Not only has Quintana surrendered 2 runs or fewer in each of his last 6 outings, but the Mets are likely going to pull the veteran right-hander at the first sign of trouble in this game anyway, so he shouldn’t have much of a chance to surrender more than 2 runs before being taken out in favor of a different option in the bullpen. It’s an all-hands-on-deck situation, and that rarely favors longevity for the starting pitcher.
Read our full Mets vs Brewers prediction for Game 3 of their Wild Card series
