Wednesday will feature a huge 15-game slate as games begin early in Pittsburgh and New York at 12:35 pm ET and conclude in Minnesota and Kansas City with a 7:40 pm ET first pitch. There is plenty of daytime baseball which means plenty of ways to make the afternoon a profitable one. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Wednesday.
Pirates -1.5 (+145)
Dodgers/Brewers under 8.5 (-115)
Nationals ML (+135)
MLB Parlay odds: +976
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Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+145) over Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies starting rotation was by far my favorite to fade last season. That was especially true for Jose Urena and Antonio Senzatela because all you had to do was take the opposing teams’ run line, and more often than not, you were a winner. That’s exactly what I’m going to do today against Senzatela. In 19 starts last season, Senzatela finished in the 1st percentile in xBA, strikeout rate and whiff rate, as well as bottom 10% in almost every other pitching category. But the right-hander has made only 1 start this season because he has been working his way back from a torn ACL which he suffered in August of last year. His lone outing came against the Mets, who have been awful at the plate this season, so his 5 innings, 1 run and 3 hit performance means nothing to me. Instead, I took a look at his Minor League rehab starts, and they reminded me of the true Senzatela. He was shelled for 13 runs and 10 hits in just 6.1 innings in 2 starts in Triple-A.
Admittedly, I don’t love that Hill is pitching for the Pirates. The 43-year-old’s prime has come and gone, and he’s obviously in the twilight of his career. However, if there’s one team Hill can have success against, it’s Colorado. The Rockies have been atrocious against left-handed pitching this season as they have a 74 wRC+ against southpaws – the 2nd-worst mark in baseball. Also, against lefties, their offense ranks in the bottom 10 in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS, as well as the top 10 in strikeout rate. This pick is more about fading Senzatela than backing Hill, and it’s worth it at such a good price.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers under 8.5 (-115)
Clayton Kershaw is the definition of consistency. The longtime Dodger has had an ERA below 3 in 12 of his last 14 seasons and is on pace to make it 13 if he keeps pitching the way he has been. His last outing was the worst of his season thus far as their NL West rivals, the Padres, were able to smack him around for 4 runs, 8 hits and 5 walks in just 4.2 innings. However, it seems the San Diego hitters benefited from a great deal of luck since they hit .400 against Kershaw but had just a .258 xBA — a drastic difference. Kershaw then had to see a meme of him crying on the scoreboard after the Dodgers lost that game, and I don’t know about you, but that would only fire me up to make the next start the best one yet. Fortunately for Kershaw, he gets the ideal lineup on Wednesday night.
The Brewers have been horrendous against left-handed pitching this season. Against lefties, their offense ranks 27th in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage, 30th in slugging percentage, 30th in OPS and 30th in wRC+. In conclusion, they are the worst lineup in baseball against southpaws. But not far behind the Brewers are the Dodgers, who have just an 86 wRC+ versus lefties. They are also in sole possession of the worst batting average against southpaws at just .193, so Wade Miley has an excellent chance to keep his hot start to the season going. What Miley lacks in velocity, he makes up for in movement since the veteran relies on a cutter and changeup combination to keep the hitters off balance. These are 2 of the worst lineups in the league against left-handers, so I’m not overthinking this. The under has great value on Wednesday in Milwaukee.
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Washington Nationals ML (+135) over San Francisco Giants
Josiah Gray didn’t have the best start to his season. The Braves knocked him around 5 runs, 7 hits and 3 home runs in just 5 innings, but since his 2023 debut, Gray has a 2.14 ERA in his last 6 outings. He’s flown under the radar as a rising star mostly because of his poor start to the season and the Nationals being a bad baseball team, but the 25-year-old is worthy of attention. Gray has limited hitters to a .211 xBA and a .361 xSLG which are excellent numbers, and dare I say, ace worthy. The biggest change in Gray’s game from last season has been limiting the number of times he’s thrown his flat fastball, which had an absurd Run Value of 22 last season (that’s absolutely terrible!). He threw it nearly 40% of the time last year but has decreased the usage to just 30% this season, which has opened the door to throw his slider more, and that has been a great decision.
This Nationals lineup should be counting down the minutes until they get to face Sean Manaea. The lefty has been terrible through the first few weeks of the season with a 7.33 ERA, 8.02 xERA and a .299 xBA. Besides nearly doubling his ERA from last year, his walk rate of 12% is at a career-high and is especially concerning coming from a pitcher that has a 6.4% career walk rate. Two starts ago, Manaea had the misfortune of pitching in Mexico City, which has an elevation that makes Coors Field seem like a pitchers’ park. I’ll give him a pass in that start, but that means in his next outing against the Brewers, who have statistically been the worst lineup in baseball against lefties with 69 wRC+, he should have improved, right? Nope. Manaea got hit hard in just 5 innings as he allowed 4 runs and 6 hits as the Milwaukee hitters had a .316 batting average and a .349 xBA. Now he faces a Washington lineup that has a 105 wRC+, along with a .289 batting average, against southpaws. I can’t believe the Giants are favored, so I’ll happily take the Nats at plus-money odds.
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