Kevin Davies
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Welcome to another edition of Wednesday in Major League Baseball. MLB action begins in Milwaukee and Detroit in the early afternoon and finishes in the desert as the Dodgers battle the Diamondbacks. I’ve put together my 3 favorite plays in an MLB parlay and it’s available at nearly 10/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, so let’s check it out!
Royals ML (+116)
Reds ML (+116)
Orioles -1.5 (+125)
MLB parlay odds: +949
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Kansas City Royals ML over Toronto Blue Jays (+116)
The rubber match of this series has the wrong team favored in my opinion. The Blue Jays will send Chris Bassitt to the mound tonight, and he was finally exposed by the Dodgers last time out. Los Angeles rocked Bassitt for 7 runs, 9 hits, 2 home runs and 3 walks in just 2.2 innings. That has raised his season ERA to 5.64, but his xERA is even higher which means he has been lucky to have his ERA be that low. That’s not too surprising to believe since he ranks in the 9th percentile in xBA, 6th percentile in chase rate, 15th percentile in whiff rate and 31st percentile in hard-hit rate.
Kansas City’s offseason acquisitions have looked great through the first 4 weeks. Seth Lugo was one of those additions, as he solved the problem of a weak starting rotation. Through 6 starts, Lugo has a 1.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP and is allowing hard contact at just a 38.1% rate. Although he doesn’t get many strikeouts, he gets plenty of weak contact with his 8-pitch arsenal. Yes, 8 pitches! The Royals have the starting pitching advantage with a talented offense at home, so they’re worth the bet as underdogs.
Read our full Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays predictions
Cincinnati Reds ML over San Diego Padres (+116)
I have been fading Joe Musgrove a lot this season, and it’s been a very profitable spot. The right-hander was fantastic in 2023 with a 3.11 xERA and ranked as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball according to advanced metrics. However, this season has been a completely different story. Musgrove owns a 6.94 ERA and a 7.42 xERA, which indicates his poor start to the season isn’t a fluke. In his last start against the Phillies, he allowed 7 runs and 8 hits in just 3.2 innings. Plus, Musgrove has surrendered 8 home runs in his last 4 outings.
Graham Ashcraft has not been an ace, but he’s been much better than Musgrove. The right-hander has a 4.39 ERA paired with a 3.76 xERA through 5 starts and is coming off his best outing of the year. Last week, Ashcraft went 6.1 innings against the Rangers and surrendered just 1 run on 7 hits without any free passes. I think there could be a decent amount of runs scored in this game since neither pitcher has been reliable this season, but the bottom line is Musgrove has been far worse.
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 over New York Yankees (+125)
Last season, the Yankees collapsed because nearly the entirety of the offensive production came from one man — Aaron Judge. New York tried to solve that problem by adding Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo to pair with Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe and Giancarlo Stanton, but the problem remains the same. Only Volpe and Soto are hitting well in the lineup right now, and they combined for 3 of the 5 hits last night. Torres, Stanton, Judge and Anthony Rizzo have been underperforming, and that has made the New York lineup very top-heavy. That’s a bad quality for a lineup to have as they’re about to face Corbin Burnes.
Baltimore’s pitching has been phenomenal in this series. Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer have combined to allow 2 runs while the bullpen has been lights out. It’s only going to get more difficult for the Yankees since Burnes owns a 2.55 ERA and a 25.5% strikeout rate in his first year in Baltimore. At the plate, the Orioles will face Luis Gil, a young prospect with a 4.01 ERA. Gil does get a ton of swings and misses, but he also allows a ton of free passes since his walk rate is near 20%. I’m content with fading the Yankees until their offense looks more balanced.
Read our full New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles predictions
