Kevin Davies
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It’s a busy slate in baseball as games are happening throughout the day. The Angels and Pirates kick things off with an early start in Pittsburgh while the Giants and Rockies conclude the day with a late-night start in Colorado. I’ve found 3 edges in today’s slate, so here’s a +876 parlay made at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tigers ML (+114)
Orioles/Nationals alternate under 8 (+126)
Braves -1.5 (+102)
Parlay odds: +876
Detroit Tigers ML (+114) over Cleveland Guardians
Last night’s game in Cleveland turned into a slugfest. There were 14 runs scored after 3 innings as both starters were chased from the game early. That wasn’t too surprising to see since Kenta Maeda and Logan Allen were on the mound. However, tonight should be a different story. Reese Olson is getting the start for Detroit, and the right-hander owns a 2.70 ERA and a 22% strikeout rate in 6 starts. Plus, he has allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 17 innings. If you take out his one poor start against Pittsburgh, he has surrendered 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 starts.
The comforts of home have not been nice to Tanner Bibee. Cleveland’s starter comes into this matchup with a 4.46 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 6 starts, but his ERA climbs to 7.80 at home. That’s because he’s allowed 19 hits, 13 runs and 4 homers in just 15.0 innings at Progressive Field. Between his high barrel rate and Detroit’s offense explosion yesterday, I’m backing the Tigers to win the series today.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals Under 8 (+126)
After missing over a month of action, Kyle Bradish is finally back. Bradish turned into Baltimore’s ace down the stretch in 2023 as he finished the year with a 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 30 starts. But after experiencing pain in his elbow during Spring Training, the righty was shut down for months in hopes he could pitch before the all-star break. Bradish excelled in his rehab starts and made his season debut last week against the Yankees and he went 4.1 innings and gave up just 1 run on 4 hits with 5 strikeouts. He got plenty of ground balls and lots of swings and misses, so he appears back to normal.
Mitchell Parker has been thrown into the deep end at the beginning of his MLB career. His debut came against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, and since then, he has faced the Astros, Marlins and Rangers. Even with a difficult schedule, Parker has looked phenomenal as he’s posted a 2.53 ERA and 2.79 xERA in 21.1 innings. The lefty has excellent control and has yet to allow one over the fence, which is exactly what he needs to continue to do today against the O’s.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+102) over Boston Red Sox
Two words: revenge game. In the offseason the Red Sox shipped Chris Sale to the Braves to acquire Vaughn Grissom and basically get Sale’s contract off their books. Tonight will be the first time that Sale will face his former club, and I’m expecting some unusually high-velocity fastballs from the southpaw. Regardless of which team he is facing, Sale has revived his career in Atlanta. He holds a 3.44 ERA paired with a 2.81 xERA and 29% strikeout rate. The lefty has added nearly 1 MPH on his fastball since joining the Braves, which means he’s the healthiest he’s been since 2021. Plus, at home Sale is 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA and has limited hitters to a .159 batting average.
The Red Sox have dealt with the injury bug early in the season. In the lineup, Trevor Story, Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida are all dealing with injuries. In the starting rotation, Boston has been missing Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta. But tonight appears to be Pivetta’s return from a right elbow flexor strain. Pivetta was nearly perfect in his first 2 starts of the season as he allowed just 1 run and 8 hits with 13 strikeouts in 11 innings. Nearly a month after his second start of the year, Pivetta made a rehab start and allowed 4 walks and had trouble locating his pitches. I’m concerned that Pivetta isn’t ready to return, while I know Sale is chomping at the bit to face his former team.
